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Laura Zhou

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is pursuing the first ever revision of her country’s post-World War II pacifist constitution, a step that observers say is likely to be welcomed in Washington and condemned in Beijing.
Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured a historic two-thirds majority in the National Diet’s lower house in February’s election, passing the threshold needed to pass constitutional amendments without other parties’ support.
“An independent constitutional amendment by the hands of the Japanese people is our party’s long-cherished goal,” Takaichi said at the LDP’s annual convention on Monday. Among the policies adopted at the event is the goal of submitting draft amendments to legislature.
“I want to greet next year’s party convention with a clear prospect for proposing an amendment.”
Takaichi did not specify which parts she wants to revise, but the most likely – and controversial – move would be to change Article 9, under which Japan renounces war and the use of force in international disputes. Other potential amendments proposed by the LDP in the past include emergency powers, electoral district changes and education reforms.
Japan’s post-war constitution was written mainly by US officials and has remained unchanged since coming into force in 1947.
The LDP, which has been in power nearly continuously since its founding in 1955, has always advocated changing the constitution.
The strongest push was made by Takaichi’s mentor, former prime minister Shinzo Abe, who set a 2020 deadline for revising Article 9. But Abe did not manage to put a revision bill to a parliamentary vote before he stepped down in 2020. In 2022, he was assassinated.
A survey conducted by the Asahi Shimbun newspaper and Tokyo University showed that 93 per cent of the legislators that were newly elected in February supported a constitutional revision, a sharp increase from 67 per cent of the successful candidates in the 2024 election.
After leading the LDP to its historic supermajority, Takaichi has the confidence needed to push for more assertive defence policies.
The crisis in Iran and the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz may also play an indirect part in bolstering arguments in favour of expanding Japan’s security role overseas, according to Mong Cheung, a professor at the school of international liberal studies at Waseda University in Tokyo.
Besides passing the lower house, a constitutional amendment would also need the approval of two-thirds of the legislature’s upper house before going to a national referendum.
While the LDP is also the biggest party in the upper house, it falls short of a majority. The next election to the House of Councillors is due in July 2028.
Ahead of that vote, the LDP is likely to try to rally support among parties that share its views on constitutional revision, according to Liu Jiangyong, a Japan specialist and professor at Tsinghua University.
“If the LDP together with these opposition parties manage to achieve a major victory in the 2028 upper house election, then it cannot be ruled out that Takaichi may introduce a so-called revision bill and seek parliamentary approval.”


In that case, Takaichi, the first female prime minister in Japanese history, would also be the first to make “substantive breakthroughs on constitutional revision”, Liu added.
Cheung agreed that it was unlikely that a substantial constitutional revision would be passed in the short term.
“A more realistic path would be to build political and public consensus first, rather than fast-track the constitutional revision process,” Cheung said.
When it comes to the public referendum, where only a simple majority is needed, the trend seems to be in favour of revision. While polling from Japan’s major media organisations has generally showed support for changes wavering around 50 per cent for most of this century, there are signs that more of the public has been in favour of changes in the last few years.
And adding Japan’s military to the constitution was expected to be at the centre of Takaichi’s push.
Under Article 9, Japan is forbidden from maintaining an army, navy or air force, leaving its Self-Defence Forces with no constitutional recognition.
“This direction has long enjoyed consensus among Japanese conservative circles and is relatively a politically more feasible proposal,” Cheung said.
Critics have said that granting the military a place in the constitution may pave the way for an easing of restrictions on overseas missions, weapons exports and even intervention in a war.
This will also inevitably bring the memories of historical wartime between Japan and China back to the fore.
Liu Jiangyong, Tsinghua University
The Japanese government has already tweaked its interpretation of Article 9 – in 2015, legislation was passed that enables Japan to exercise the right to collective self-defence in an “existential crisis situation”.
“Article 9 has ensured Japan’s post-war pacifist path, and if this clause is revised and Japan is allowed to use armed force externally, that would be a partial denial of the core of the post-war constitution,” Liu said.
“This will also inevitably bring the memories of historical wartime between Japan and China back to the fore.”
In a commentary on Wednesday, state news agency Xinhua said the latest push “once again underscores how Japan’s right-wing forces are steering the country’s security policy in an offensive and expansionist direction”.
Cheung, in Tokyo, said the push might further strain Japan’s ties with China.
“China would likely see the revision as another sign of Japan ‘breaking through constraints’ on security policy, deepening strategic distrust and hurting bilateral ties.”
Meanwhile, the United States was expected to be pleased with Japan’s efforts to strengthen its security role, “particularly within the framework of alliance burden-sharing”, he added.
The relationship between the two Asian neighbours has been strained since Takaichi said in November that an attack on Taiwan could be seen as an “existential crisis situation” for Japan, which would allow the military to take action in collective self-defence.


While Takaichi later said that her comments were “hypothetical”, she refused to retract them. Beijing has responded with export restrictions on dual-use items intended for Japan’s military, tightening screening of rare earth exports and issuing travel and study warnings for Chinese citizens.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of China and has never ruled out the use of force to reunite it with the mainland. Japan, like most countries, does not recognise Taiwan as an independent state.
Liu said that deterring China was a goal of those who wanted to amend Japan’s constitution.
“Japan is not trying to get rid of the US but would seek to strengthen the alliance even after the constitutional revision, so that it can build deterrence or strategic containment together with semi-allies such as Australia, the Philippines, India and even Nato,” he said.
“Amending the constitution under such circumstances would inevitably cause serious damage to Sino-Japanese relations.”


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Goal of changing the post-war system has never been closer, but upper house could still be a stumbling block, analysts argue


Goal of changing the post-war system has never been closer, but upper house could still be a stumbling block, analysts argue.


Peace out: is Takaichi putting Japan’s pacifist constitution on the chopping block?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Goal of changing the post-war system has never been closer, but upper house could still be a stumbling block, analysts argue

Goal of changing the post-war system has never been closer, but upper house could still be a stumbling block, analysts argue