Can Donald Trump end his war on Iran in time for rescheduled China trip?

Donald Trump’s planned visit to China in May may offer some clues about the preferred US road map for ending the war with Iran, according to Chinese analysts, who said that if the conflict dragged on, it could play into Beijing’s hands. The US president delayed the visit, initially scheduled to start at the end of this month, to focus on the conflict, but said on Wednesday that he would visit Beijing on May 14 and 15. China has yet to confirm the dates and on Thursday foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said only that the two sides were “in communication” about the visit. Ma Xiaolin, an international relations specialist at Zhejiang International Studies University, said Trump may see the new dates as a chance to seek a resolution. “Even if the US can’t reach a peace agreement with Iran, at least Trump may seek to push to de-escalate the conflict to keep it in a relatively stable state,” Ma said. Diao Daming, a professor at Renmin University’s school of international studies, said the new dates might reflect Washington’s thinking about how the war was likely to unfold. “The US previously announced a schedule change because of the situation in the Middle East … the rescheduled timing is very likely when the Trump administration believes the visit would be less affected by the evolving situation.” Trump’s eagerness to announce the dates might also reflect his “strong motivation and positive expectations” for the trip, Diao added. The planned visit comes at a time when US-China relations are under increasing strain from disputes over issues such as trade, Taiwan and security. However, the two sides have signalled their willingness to maintain communication between their leaders, with Lin saying on Thursday this played an “irreplaceable role”. There has also been hope that Trump’s visit to China – the first by a US leader since his 2017 visit – could help improve outside international confidence about the relationship between the two countries. Meanwhile, Trump has indicated his willingness to end the war, urging Iran to “get serious soon, before it is too late”. Tehran has publicly rejected a US peace plan passed on via Pakistan but has indicated it would be willing to stop fighting if its own conditions were met. However, analysts warned that the two sides would need to overcome their deep-seated mistrust if any peace deal were to be agreed. Tehran was worried it might be attacked again if it made significant concessions this time, according to Zhang Chuchu, deputy director of the Centre for Middle Eastern Studies at Fudan University. “In this climate, the two sides are likely to wrangle for some time and continue to fight while talking,” Zhang said. The US-Israeli strikes on Iran have raised fears that the economic shock waves they have caused will get worse the longer the conflict drags on – heightening the risk for Trump that the Republicans will lose control of Congress in November’s midterm elections. Many observers also said the dynamic was likely to move in Beijing’s favour if the situation was not resolved. Ma pointed to Trump’s “coercive, transactional or unilateral” behaviour, citing his repeated threats towards Greenland and adding “Europe is already taking precautions”. He said: “So, at this point, I think the Sino-US relationship is actually the most stable pole and this dynamic actually plays to Beijing’s advantage, and it is Trump who may find himself anxious, both at home and abroad.” Ma Bo, an associate professor at the school of international studies at Nanjing University, said any further changes to the date of Trump’s visit would damage US credibility. “If the White House postpones the May visit again, it will call into question its ability to effectively carry out its diplomatic agenda, handle simultaneous crises and uphold its policy commitments,” he said. “Meanwhile, US allies may quietly lose faith in Washington’s strategic stability and ability to follow through on its promises.” He added that the US was showing it could not “walk and chew gum at the same time” – deal with multiple events simultaneously – but since it was the one raising expectations for Trump’s visit, China could afford to wait and see how events unfolded. “If conflicts in Iran upend US decisions again, Beijing could leverage the situation to further promote the narrative of ‘America creates uncertainty, China provides stability’, without overreacting,” he added. Zhu Junwei, director of the Horizon Insights Centre, a Beijing-based think tank, said if the May summit did not take place, that could put the US in an awkward position. “Usually announcing a leader’s trip is a very carefully considered decision, but if the US cannot control the situation in Iran and pushes back the plan again, that will be an embarrassment to the US,” Zhu said.

Can Donald Trump end his war on Iran in time for rescheduled China trip?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The US president announced this week that he would visit in mid-May after putting the date back to focus on the conflict

The US president announced this week that he would visit in mid-May after putting the date back to focus on the conflict