African producers may have energy edge during Iran war, if they can overcome hurdles
Analysts say oil from Africa may be lower-risk alternative, coinciding with a fresh push for infrastructure to supply Europe
“West and North African exports are largely insulated from the conflict, meaning barrels from Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, Algeria and Libya are viewed as lower-risk alternatives,” said Grace Goodrich and Anne-Laure Klein of Energy, Capital & Power, a Cape Town-based energy risk advisory firm focused on Africa.
For European and Asian buyers, these volumes were now preferred for their cheaper insurance and predictable delivery times, they said in a report published on March 9.
Yet African producers have failed to capitalise. Despite proven reserves of more than 125 billion barrels, the top four – Nigeria, Angola, Libya and Algeria – have seen exports fall by 500,000 to 1 million barrels each from their peaks, with new finds unable to fill the gap.
01:10
Trump says Iran has given a major energy-related ‘present’ to the US
A combination of conflicts, underinvestment and Western energy transition politics ensured that capacity was never developed.