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Shi Jiangtao

As US President Donald Trump prepares for his first China trip in nearly a decade, Chinese scholars see an opportunity to steer ties away from confrontation and towards a managed coexistence.
Speakers at a seminar hosted by the University of Hong Kong’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World last week were cautiously optimistic about prospects for the relationship.
That was despite Washington’s strategic pullback, heightened sensitivities over the Taiwan Strait, and intensifying conflict in the Middle East.
Da Wei, director of the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, argued that the “relative stability” in today’s US‑China relations was fundamentally different from the cycles of crisis and summit diplomacy seen under previous administrations.
“I think the nature of the relationship has changed,” he said at the event on Friday.
Da attributed that shift to the Trump administration’s “strategic retrenchment” which he said “basically ended the international liberalism which [Washington] had honoured for 80 years after World War II”.
He said the world’s largest developed country and largest developing country had moved on from the “love and hate” partnership of the post-Cold War era, anchored by hyper-globalisation.
According to Da, they are now in “the nationalist era”.
“The nature of this bilateral relationship is that these are the two strongest nationalist countries in the world, and how to coexist,” he said.

Recalling his final conversation with Henry Kissinger shortly before the former US secretary of state’s death, Da said Kissinger had suggested a “fourth communique” between the two governments to “compare notes” and redefine mutual understandings.
Da noted the suggestion would be “very unpopular” in the US and that there was almost “zero chance” of the rival powers reaching a broad agreement like the 1972 Shanghai Communique that opened relations. But he said “we do need to compare notes again”.
“We don’t need a written communique – that’s too difficult – but we do need more common understanding in the coming years,” he said.
“I think this is the agenda for the two leaders this year, through the four meetings,” he added, referring to potential face-to-face meetings between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
They include talks at the end of this month when Trump is expected to visit Beijing, and possible meetings later in the year at the G20 summit in the US and the Apec gathering in China.
Da said the two leaders were likely to focus on three key areas where a “rebalance” was needed, starting with economic and trade issues like tariffs, market access, investments and technology restrictions.
The second area was the “extremely difficult and sensitive” topic of Taiwan, as well as regional security issues including Japan’s role in US-China ties.
“The third rebalance is the international order: multilateral mechanisms, global governance, hotspot issues. Should we stay in the United Nations, or should we join other boards of peace?” he said, referring to a body set up by the Trump administration.
Da said even if the two sides made modest progress on tariffs it would be a win, given the complications from the widening war in Iran and a US Supreme Court ruling invalidating certain tariffs imposed on other countries.
He also noted that the agenda would likely be disrupted by volatility in the Middle East resulting from US-Israeli strikes on Iran and the ensuing Strait of Hormuz crisis that threatens global energy flows.
“If the two leaders meet at the end of this month, probably Iran will be the number one issue,” Da said.


He expressed hope for a stable tariff agreement, noting that China’s priority was “predictability” for global business.
Da also said domestic issues like the economic slowdown and ongoing campaign against corruption – particularly in the military – would not have a “serious impact” on Beijing’s foreign policy.
On Taiwan, Wang Zheng, a negotiation specialist from Seton Hall University in the US, told the seminar that the issue was about identity rather than an “interest-based conflict” – and deterrence may not work.
He said Beijing, Taipei and Washington were all being driven by a “dream” – of reunification, independence or containment, respectively.
“People are normally rational, but when they have a dream – especially when they think the dream has legitimacy – they are willing to take risks,” he said.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
Wang called for “identity-conscious diplomacy” and reassurance from all sides, citing Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te’s recent shift to refer to “mainland China” instead of “China” as a small but positive signal.
More broadly, he said any summit between Xi and Trump had value as a form of conflict management, and dialogue could help to avert “another tariff war, chip war or technology war”.
Wang said this was especially critical as perceptions shifted from the “East rising, West declining” towards mutual recognition, making “peaceful coexistence the only rational choice”.


Japan’s role in regional tensions was also highlighted at the seminar, by Zhang Yun, a professor of international politics at Nanjing University.
Zhang noted that as the dynamics between the US and China were changing, so too was Japan’s posture.
“If you define something as a crisis, especially a crisis for survival, you legitimise radical actions,” he said.
Zhang was referring to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comment in November that Tokyo could intervene militarily if Beijing attacked Taiwan, calling it a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan.
It sparked the worst diplomatic row between China and Japan in a decade.
With Takaichi due to visit the White House next week, Zhang called for Tokyo to adopt a “more sensible diplomatic and political policy” to support a “healthy trilateral relationship” between China, the US and Japan.
Zhang added that talks between the US and China would reassure the region that the major powers could engage, even in unpredictable times.


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Chinese scholars say the US-China relationship has changed, and there’s a chance for the two powers to steer away from confrontation


Chinese scholars say the US-China relationship has changed, and there’s a chance for the two powers to steer away from confrontation.


From ‘love and hate’ to nationalism, can Xi and Trump rebalance ties?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Chinese scholars say the US-China relationship has changed, and there’s a chance for the two powers to steer away from confrontation

Chinese scholars say the US-China relationship has changed, and there’s a chance for the two powers to steer away from confrontation