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Yuanyue Dang

While failing to see eye to eye is hardly new to Beijing and Tokyo, Sino-Japanese relations have been especially strained this month and are at risk of worsening even further.
The trigger for the downturn was Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comments to the Japanese parliament on November 7 that the use of force against Taiwan could be perceived as a “survival-threatening situation”, which would permit Tokyo to deploy the Japan Self-Defence Forces. She has refused to retract her statement.
The timing of the comments also has much to do with Beijing’s fury. Her statement came shortly after Beijing designated October 25 as the day to commemorate Taiwan’s liberation from Japanese occupation 80 years ago.
In addition, Beijing held high-profile events in the preceding months to mark the 80th anniversary of China’s victory against Japanese aggression in World War II, capped by a massive military parade on September 3.
The present diplomatic row, therefore, could be seen as the culmination of a complex and arguably unresolved wartime history between the two countries, coupled with recent policy statements and actions by each side that the other views with wariness.

Why did Takaichi’s comments infuriate Beijing?
Takaichi’s statement indicated that Japan might deploy troops to intervene if Beijing were to use force against Taiwan, marking a departure from the “strategic ambiguity” long espoused by Japan’s leaders.
The Taiwan issue is regarded by Beijing as central to its national interests and one of its non-negotiable red lines.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including Japan and the United States, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-ruled island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
From Beijing’s perspective, recognition of its position on Taiwan is fundamental to any country establishing diplomatic relations with China. It opposes any form of military assistance, military commitment or official exchanges with Taiwan by other nations.


What is the view in Japan?
Japanese public opinion on the Taiwan issue is sharply divided. According to a poll released by Kyodo News on Sunday, 48.8 per cent of Japanese respondents supported Takaichi’s stance on defending Taiwan, while 44.2 per cent opposed it.
The survey also indicated that the latest approval rating for the Takaichi cabinet stood at 69.9 per cent.
Takaichi’s public statement on Taiwan differed from that of some of her predecessors.
When asked last year about a Taiwan contingency, then-Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida avoided giving a direct answer, merely stating that a comprehensive assessment would be required and that “it is difficult to generalise”
But in 2021, Shinzo Abe, who had not long left top office, framed a possible Taiwan Strait conflict as being linked to Japan. The idea gained traction in some Japanese quarters, and Abe’s comments at the time led to severe protests from Beijing.
Takaichi is a former close ally of Abe’s, having served in several ministerial roles under the late leader.
How do past grievances play a part?
For years, Beijing has accused Japan’s political right wing of glorifying the island nation’s wartime history, attempting to amend its pacifist constitution, altering its non-nuclear policy and expanding the country’s military capabilities.
Beijing has perceived steps taken in these directions as encouraging a revival of Japanese militarism.
Takaichi has on multiple occasions visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japanese war dead, including 14 Class A war criminals.
In addition, Beijing has repeatedly voiced dissatisfaction with Takaichi’s contact with Taiwan.
Before landing the prime minister’s job, Takaichi met this year with Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te and the island’s foreign minister, Lin Chia-lung.
Beijing sees Lai as a “diehard Taiwan separatist” and “troublemaker”, repeatedly accusing him of “whitewashing Japan’s colonial rule” and trying to forge stronger ties with Tokyo.


In addition, Sino-Japanese ties have been troubled by rising nationalism in both countries.
A joint public opinion survey released last year indicated that negative sentiment between Chinese and Japanese citizens was reaching its highest point in two decades, with nearly 90 per cent of respondents holding unfavourable views of their neighbour.
Last year, two high-profile attacks targeting Japanese citizens took place in China, and this year several Chinese tourists were attacked in Japan.
When Takaichi became prime minister in October, Chinese President Xi Jinping did not send a congratulatory message to the new Japanese leader, breaking with a precedent he had established for Japan’s last three prime ministers.
But the two leaders spoke for about 30 minutes on October 31 on the sidelines of the Apec summit in South Korea, during which Xi said conflicts and differences should not define bilateral relations.
However, a day after their meeting, Takaichi met with former Taiwanese politician Lin Hsin-i, prompting criticism from Beijing.
What cards has Beijing played?
In light of the tensions, intergovernmental exchanges, people-to-people exchanges as well as economic and trade relations are likely to face challenges.
China’s foreign ministry announced on Monday that Premier Li Qiang would not meet with Japanese leaders during this week’s Group of 20 summit in South Africa. Beijing cited Takaichi’s “provocative” comments.
Beijing has accused Takaichi of “fundamentally undermining the political basis of China-Japan relations”.
It lodged solemn protests and warned that Japan’s military intervention would be construed as an act of aggression, with Beijing vowing to strike back firmly if Tokyo used military force in the Taiwan Strait.
The impact is already being felt beyond politics. State media reported that the release of several Japanese films in China would be postponed.
The annual Beijing-Tokyo Forum, scheduled for this month in the Chinese capital, has also been postponed. The forum brings together academics, business representatives, officials and others to engage in dialogue.
On Friday, China’s foreign ministry advised its citizens against non-essential travel to Japan in the near term, while the Ministry of Education issued a similar warning for studying abroad.
According to Japan’s National Tourism Organisation, about 7.49 million Chinese tourists visited Japan between January and September this year, making China the largest source country of visitors.
Data from the Japanese embassy in Beijing in 2023 showed that about 110,000 Chinese students were studying in Japan.
What else can be expected?
Yuyuan Tantian, a social media account under state broadcaster CCTV, said on Saturday that Beijing’s strong reaction signalled China’s readiness to take further measures, including adding Japanese companies to an “unreliable entity list” or suspending intergovernmental exchanges in economic, diplomatic or military affairs.
Japanese stocks have fallen sharply this week, particularly several that are related to tourism. Observers have attributed this performance to the dual impact of declining US technology stocks and Sino-Japanese tensions.
Chinese media cited estimates from Nomura Research Institute, a Tokyo-based consultancy, suggesting Beijing’s boycott of travel to Japan could cost Japan’s economy about 2.2 trillion yen (US$14.2 billion) annually, reducing the country’s GDP by 0.36 per cent.
There are also concerns in Japan that China could tighten the supply of rare earths – a powerful tool for Beijing in the trade war with Washington – and suspend seafood imports from the country.
It remains to be seen whether the frequency of routine patrols by China’s coastguard near disputed islands between China and Japan will increase owing to the latest tensions.
On Sunday, a Chinese coastguard vessel formation passed through the waters of the East China Sea surrounding the Diaoyu Islands, which Japan calls the Senkaku Islands.
The Chinese navy is also being closely watched for possible moves.
Last Tuesday, three Chinese naval vessels, including an advanced Type 055 destroyer, transited through Japanese waters.


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Diplomatic row could be seen as culmination of complex history, coupled with recent statements and deeds that both sides view with wariness


Diplomatic row could be seen as culmination of complex history, coupled with recent statements and deeds that both sides view with wariness.


Sanae Takaichi

Taiwan

Japan

South Korea

Tokyo

Xi Jinping

Fumio Kishida

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Why does the Taiwan issue touch a nerve between Beijing and Tokyo?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Diplomatic row could be seen as culmination of complex history, coupled with recent statements and deeds that both sides view with wariness

Diplomatic row could be seen as culmination of complex history, coupled with recent statements and deeds that both sides view with wariness