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Kawala Xie

Alyssa Chen

Even as US air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities put China’s influence to the test in the strategically important region, most observers expect Beijing to avoid direct intervention of any kind.
They said Beijing was likely to instead focus on diplomatic support for Tehran as the US became more entangled in the Israel-Iran conflict.
US bombing over the weekend reportedly damaged three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, marking the most significant Western military action against Tehran since the 1979 Iranian Revolution led to the establishment of an Islamic republic.
The Iranian military on Monday threatened “severe consequences” for the US, although satellite imagery and nuclear watchdogs suggested the strikes had caused limited damage to Iran’s core nuclear capabilities.
In a move that could send shock waves through global energy markets, Iran’s legislature has also approved plans to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil transits.


China on Sunday strongly condemned the US air strikes, describing them as serious violations of international law. It has also condemned Israeli actions since the hot conflict with Iran erupted on June 13 and has offered to mediate.
Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at Lanzhou University’s school of politics and international relations, said China was more likely to focus on providing diplomatic support to Iran.
Alongside close Iranian partners Russia and Pakistan, China on Sunday proposed a UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire to prevent further escalation.
But Zhu said that Beijing’s efforts were unlikely to play a “decisive or fundamental” role in the conflict or to have significant sway over Iran.
He also ruled out the possibility of any military intervention.
“Military intervention is entirely off the table for China – it is a fundamental principle and an unwavering stance for Beijing,” Zhu said.
China’s non-interventionist foreign policy has largely favoured diplomacy to ease hostilities in Middle Eastern conflicts. Observers often note that China – despite its deep economic interests in the region – lacks the leverage to influence warring parties and prefers to avoid being drawn into regional entanglements.
China says it has not directly sold arms to Iran since 2005, in line with United Nations sanctions, but the United States accuses it of supplying dual-use items and technology that have contributed to Iran’s drone and missile capabilities. Beijing denies the charge.
Beijing is also said to be carefully weighing the strategic impact of a destabilised Middle East, a weakened Iran and a reassertion of US dominance in the region, as all of this could undermine China’s expanding regional interests.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has urged Beijing to use its diplomatic influence to dissuade Tehran from closing the Strait of Hormuz. Asked for comment on Monday, the Chinese foreign ministry called for stronger international action to de-escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf, to prevent disruptions to global trade and energy supplies.
“China calls on the international community to step up efforts to promote the de-escalation of conflicts and prevent regional instability from having a greater impact on global economic development,” ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said.


Lying between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil and gas flows. China is the largest buyer of Iranian crude and is highly reliant on the Persian Gulf for petroleum. According to the US Energy Information Administration, China imported 5.4 million barrels of crude oil per day through the strait in the first quarter of this year.
She Gangzheng, associate professor of international relations at Tsinghua University, said that blocking the strait could not be a priority for Iran, both in terms of capability and intent, as this might cut off its own export routes as well as disrupt the critical trade and energy export channels of the Gulf Arab states.
“The fallout would likely backfire on Iran itself, provoking backlash from regional nations, rather than inflict significant harm on Israel or the United States,” he said.
Like Zhu, She said China was likely to refrain from providing direct military or other support to Iran.
“Even if China were to consider such support now, it would be nearly impossible to translate military aid into immediate combat-ready capabilities for Iran. So the likelihood of China offering direct military assistance in this context is very low,” he said.


Fan Hongda, a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute at Shanghai International Studies University, said it would be “difficult” for China to pressure Iran not to close the strait, given that Tehran had legitimate grounds to respond after coming under attack.
However, Fan argued that Beijing could possibly offer “material support” if the conflict escalated, although he described the US strikes so far as largely “symbolic”.
“Judging from the available information from all parties so far, the bombing did not deliver a fatal blow to Iran’s nuclear development. It serves more as deterrence.”
The US strikes were the first to involve bunker-buster bombs capable of penetrating targets buried deep underground. They are believed to have damaged above-ground operations at the Natanz nuclear site and essential uranium conversion facility at Isfahan. However, Iran’s deeply buried enrichment facilities at Fordow appear intact.
“If the US further escalates the Israel-Iran war, whether out of great-power responsibility or to safeguard its own interests, I believe China will step up its support and is likely to provide material assistance to Iran in addition to diplomatic support,” Fan said.
“Of course, China certainly does not want such a situation to occur.”


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China more likely to focus on providing diplomatic support to Iran, observers say, rule out military intervention


China more likely to focus on providing diplomatic support to Iran, observers say, rule out military intervention.


China’s influence tested by US air strikes on Iran but direct role unlikely: analysts

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}China more likely to focus on providing diplomatic support to Iran, observers say, rule out military intervention

China more likely to focus on providing diplomatic support to Iran, observers say, rule out military intervention