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Kawala Xie

Laura Zhou

Newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has signalled a desire to ease tensions with North Korea, halting propaganda loudspeaker broadcasts along the border – and turning to China for support.
In a 30-minute phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday, six days after taking office, Lee urged China to play a “constructive role” in the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
Xi responded that China would make efforts to resolve the issue, saying that peace and stability on the peninsula were in the common interest of both countries, according to South Korean presidential spokeswoman Kang Yu-jung.
However, a Chinese foreign ministry statement did not refer to that part of the phone conversation or to denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula.
Analysts said the omission reflected China’s consistent stance in favour of maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula while refraining from putting public pressure on North Korea.
They also suggested that while Beijing would avoid openly taking sides when engaging with Seoul, it would calibrate its involvement in the denuclearisation issue based on two factors: South Korea’s approach to China and the potential for renewed US-North Korea dialogue.


Lu Chao, a professor at Liaoning University, said the omission actually indicated that China’s position towards the peninsula – to ensure peace and stability – had not changed.
“China and North Korea are friendly nations, and China also hopes to continue to develop a strategic cooperative partnership with South Korea,” he said.
“In other words, China hopes to play an active role towards both North Korea and South Korea to maintain peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and resolve issues through peaceful negotiations. These [positions] will not change.”
Despite repeated calls from Seoul, Beijing has remained relatively muted on Pyongyang’s nuclear activities in recent years, often saying it supports dialogue and opposes pressure tactics.
Some experts said Beijing refrained from openly aligning with South Korea on the Korean peninsula issue out of concern about a reaction from Pyongyang.
“Beijing does not want to send a public message that it will work [with] Seoul to rein in Pyongyang,” said Zhang Baohui, a political scientist at Lingnan University in Hong Kong.
The omission also showed the “limit” of what Beijing could accomplish with Pyongyang to respond to Seoul’s request for help, Zhang added.
There has been much speculation about China-North Korea ties in the past year since Pyongyang sent troops to help Russia fight in the Ukraine war.
While Beijing has kept a distance from the Russia-North Korea alignment, analysts said China was concerned that Nato, the transatlantic security alliance, might use the cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang as a pretext to increase its presence in Asia – a move that would run counter to Chinese interests.
Zhang said he did not see a clear rift forming between China and North Korea, noting that Beijing, Pyongyang and Moscow shared “strong strategic synergies” in the face of their rivalry with the US. However, he said that North Korea might be seeking more autonomy by deepening ties with Russia.
He said Beijing was “certainly motivated” to play a more active role on the Korean peninsula to “reward” Lee’s friendlier policy towards China.
Lee, who is seen as a progressive figure, is expected to improve ties with Beijing, according to Ryu Yong-wook, an East Asia specialist at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy.
Relations between China and South Korea were complicated under the rule of former president Yoon Suk-yeol.
Despite the two neighbours’ deep economic ties, Yoon aligned with Washington’s policy to counter Beijing in high technology and the Indo-Pacific. Yoon, who took office in May 2022, was impeached in April.
Lee has consistently referred to Beijing as a strategic partner to Seoul alongside Washington, stressing that Seoul should not be forced to choose between Beijing and Washington.
He is also less vocal on Taiwan compared with his predecessor. During his campaign, Lee emphasised that Seoul should not intervene in cross-strait issues or “pester” Beijing.
Ryu noted that whether Beijing became more involved with North Korea would depend less on who led South Korea and more on the trajectory of US-North Korea relations.
“If [US President Donald] Trump and [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un decide to engage in bilateral negotiation again, we will see greater Chinese activism on the Korean peninsula,” he said.


The White House said this week that Trump was “receptive” to resuming contact with Kim, following reports that North Korean diplomats in New York had refused to accept a letter from Trump.
The letter was widely interpreted as Trump’s attempt to re-engage with North Korean leaders after denuclearisation talks fell apart during his first term. The US has since maintained sanctions on North Korea and ramped up military drills with South Korea and Japan to deter Pyongyang, which has responded with growing hostility and abandoned previous denuclearisation pledges.
Beijing has said the drills cause instability in the region, and called for a “dual suspension” approach, which requires North Korea to freeze its missile and nuclear programme and South Korea and the US to halt joint military exercises.
Analysts said that US re-engagement with North Korea was becoming increasingly unlikely as Pyongyang had shown no intention to denuclearise. Trump’s motives for re-engagement also remain unclear, especially given his previous acknowledgement of North Korea as a nuclear state.
Lu from Liaoning University said that China would closely monitor Trump’s policy towards North Korea, as well as whether Lee would follow through on his “positive” China policy with concrete actions.
“In the past, [South Korea practised] a one-sided diplomacy towards the United States, even at the expense of its traditional friendly relations with Beijing. Will there be any changes? I think we need to continue to observe,” he said.


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Lee Jae-myung was sworn in as president last week. Photo: Photo: AFP

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China

Diplomacy

Analysts say Beijing’s role will depend on new South Korean leader’s approach to China and potential for US-North Korea dialogue


Analysts say Beijing’s role will depend on new South Korean leader’s approach to China and potential for US-North Korea dialogue.


Lee Jae-myung turns to China to ease North Korea tensions, but will Beijing take sides?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Analysts say Beijing’s role will depend on new South Korean leader’s approach to China and potential for US-North Korea dialogue

Analysts say Beijing’s role will depend on new South Korean leader’s approach to China and potential for US-North Korea dialogue