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Laura Zhou

Shi Jiangtao

Lawrence Chung

Beijing on Tuesday expressed condolences over the death of Pope Francis and reiterated its willingness to continue improving relations with the Vatican.
But experts caution that the future of relations remains uncertain, given unresolved critical issues including whether the Vatican will formally recognise Beijing over Taiwan, and with a landmark agreement on appointing bishops still largely dependent on the next pope.
China’s foreign ministry on Tuesday emphasised the “constructive” momentum in ties with the Vatican as part of its condolence message.
“In recent years, China and the Vatican have maintained constructive engagement and carried out useful exchanges. China is willing to make joint efforts with the Vatican to promote the continuous improvement of China-Vatican relations,” spokesman Guo Jiakun said.
The Vatican has been working for years to improve relations with China, and Pope Francis declared last year that China was “a promise and a hope” for the Catholic Church.


Under Pope Francis, Beijing and the Holy See achieved a historic breakthrough in 2018 after decades of strained relations, signing a provisional agreement on the appointment of bishops in China.
The terms of the landmark deal have been largely kept confidential, but it is believed to allow both Beijing and the Holy See a say in appointing Chinese bishops.
The deal was an attempt to bridge the long-standing schism in China’s estimated 12-million-strong Catholic community, which is divided between those who attend state-sanctioned churches and the so-called underground churches that remain loyal to the Vatican.
The agreement was renewed in 2020, 2022 as well as 2024, when its validity was extended from two years to four.
Guo said the agreement for appointing bishops had been “implemented smoothly”.
Wang Meixiu, an expert on China-Vatican relations at the state-affiliated Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the 2018 agreement and the negotiations that followed had helped to build some trust that would pave the way for further engagement between the two sides.
“The fact that the two sides were able to renew the deal again and again – to another four years most recently – means that communications between the two sides have been effective and some trust has been built up, and this is very good progress.”
If there is a more conservative and orthodox pope, the Vatican will be likely to withdraw some of Pope Francis’ engagement
Yun Sun, the Stimson Centre
But other analysts were less upbeat, arguing that the Vatican’s approach might shift under the next pope.
“It depends on who will succeed him,” said Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre think tank in Washington.
“If it is a more conservative and orthodox pope, the Vatican will be likely to withdraw some of Pope Francis’ engagement, outreach and pragmatic approach to China, such as the authority to appoint bishops.”
Critics of the 2018 deal, including some respected Church leaders, see it as a betrayal of the faith, as it agrees to share authority with a government that persecutes and jails underground clergy for their loyalty to Rome, according to Naomi Thurston, an assistant professor with the Divinity School of Chung Chi College, Chinese University of Hong Kong.
“This issue is not likely to be resolved, whoever will represent the Vatican in this relationship going forward,” the specialist on Sino-Christian studies said.
“Beijing will remain pragmatic, the question is to what extent pragmatism will serve the Holy See and China’s Catholic Church.”
Observers of Chinese foreign policy are united in the view that Beijing is unlikely to further compromise in its ties with the Vatican, no matter who succeeds Pope Francis, who died on Monday aged 88.
“Beijing is unlikely to pay too much attention to the China policy of the Vatican, because China’s position has been consistent and will not be changed because of a new pope,” said Deng Yuwen, former deputy editor of the Communist Party’s flagship newspaper Study Times.
“But of course Beijing would be keen to see a successor who is friendly to China, and who will not have a too close relationship with Taiwan.”
The Vatican is among 12 governments to still maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan, with most of the others having switched recognition to Beijing. Under Pope Francis, there was some talk of the Vatican doing the same and having a permanent presence in mainland China.
If the Vatican truly intended to normalise relations with China, it would have done so years ago
Max Lo, Taiwan International Strategic Study Society
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary, but has never offered a timeline for any military campaign against the self-governed island.
Most countries, including Taiwan’s main international backer the United States, do not recognise it as independent, but Washington is opposed to any attempts at a forcible change to the status quo and is committed to arming the island for defence.
Sun said the Vatican’s Taiwan policy was another issue that could see changes under the new pope, while Wang said the Taiwan factor presented “a delicate complication” in Sino-Vatican ties.
Any further warming of Beijing-Vatican relations could unsettle Taipei, as the Holy See is Taiwan’s only European diplomatic ally. However, observers in Taiwan expect ties with the Vatican to remain stable in the near future.
“If the Vatican truly intended to normalise relations with China, it would have done so years ago,” said Max Lo, executive director of the Taiwan International Strategic Study Society, a Taipei-based think tank.
“The lack of concrete action suggests the Holy See is still weighing its options in the complex triangle of Vatican-Taiwan-China relations.”
The next pope would uphold the Vatican’s principles and maintain formal ties with Taiwan for at least the next few years, Lo said.
“Unless Beijing fully agrees to the Vatican’s conditions – particularly allowing the pope to appoint cardinals and bishops of his own choice independently – it is unlikely that the Holy See will sever ties with Taiwan.”


A retired Taiwanese diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity was of the same opinion. “The normalisation of Vatican-China relations won’t happen quickly,” he said.
“The Communist Party of China has always viewed religion, especially an expanding Church, as a potential threat to its authority.
“Any rapid growth or influence by the Church – such as the appointment of high-ranking clergy – will trigger caution in Beijing. These underlying tensions will continue to slow any progress.”
Taiwan’s foreign ministry, meanwhile, has reaffirmed its commitment to stronger ties with the Vatican.
“Taiwan will continue to promote humanitarian cooperation with the Holy See and the global Catholic community, advancing peace and democratic values,” the ministry said in a statement.
“These efforts are part of our long-standing diplomatic partnership grounded in shared ideals.”
The ministry also announced that Taiwan would send a special envoy to attend Pope Francis’ funeral, and senior officials would participate in a memorial mass at the Vatican’s Apostolic Nunciature in Taipei to express the condolences of the Taiwanese people, the Catholic faithful and the Taiwanese government.
Additional reporting Zhuang Pinghui


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Future of relations remains uncertain, analysts warn, given unresolved issues and possible policy shifts under the next pope


Future of relations remains uncertain, analysts warn, given unresolved issues and possible policy shifts under the next pope.


China condoles death of Pope Francis, seeks continued progress in Vatican ties

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Future of relations remains uncertain, analysts warn, given unresolved issues and possible policy shifts under the next pope

Future of relations remains uncertain, analysts warn, given unresolved issues and possible policy shifts under the next pope