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Alyssa Chen

Armed with “more diverse tools”, Beijing will not sit idle this time if Manila launches a second high-profile arbitration case against Beijing over the South China Sea, according to a leading Chinese maritime expert.
The Philippines is considering another legal challenge against Beijing over the disputed waterway.
One option is for the Philippines to sue China for the alleged extraction of giant clams and substantial ecological harm to coral reefs within Manila’s exclusive economic zone.
In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Wu Shicun, the founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said Beijing could take strong countermeasures to show its resolve and escalate costs for Manila in response to its initiation of legal proceedings.
“The very fact that the Philippines is pursuing a legal challenge suggests that it benefited from the first case and sees the attempt as a worthwhile endeavour,” Wu said on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on the weekend.
“To counter this, China must ensure that the costs for the Philippines outweigh the gains, making its actions a futile effort.”


An effective countermeasure could involve Beijing imposing a deadline for Manila to remove the BRP Sierra Madre – a World War II-era tank landing ship intentionally stationed on Second Thomas Shoal – Wu suggested. Should Manila fail to comply with the deadline, Beijing could assume responsibility for towing the vessel away, he added.
Developing infrastructure on Scarborough Shoal – including a coastguard law enforcement base, logistical support installations, marine environmental research institutions and lighthouses – would also be feasible to fortify Chinese control.
“Furthermore, China’s reaction may also act as a cautionary signal to other countries regarding the repercussions of undertaking similar measures,” Wu said.
Scarborough Shoal, known as Panatag in the Philippines and Huangyan Island in China, is a triangular cluster of small, low-lying rocky islets within Manila’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone. Since 2012, China has maintained control over this area, despite competing claims from Manila.
In 2016, the Philippines secured a victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which determined that China’s extensive territorial claims in the South China Sea were unfounded under international law.
China adhered to its “four noes” policy in the case – no acceptance, no participation, no recognition and no implementation – but Wu hinted that China’s response “might not be that simple” this time.
The South China Sea has increasingly become a source of international tension. Last week, Australia and China traded barbs over their mid-air encounter in the Paracel Islands, known as the Xisha Islands in China and the Hoang Sa Islands in Vietnam. The archipelago is the subject of a long-standing and contentious maritime dispute between Beijing and Hanoi.
Canberra said a Chinese J-16 fighter jet released flares within 30 metres (98 feet) of an Australian surveillance plane over the area and called the incident an “unsafe and dangerous” manoeuvre. Beijing defended its action and accused Australia of violating its sovereignty and entering its airspace.
The mid-air incident marks the latest in a series of episodes between China and external countries or claimants within the increasingly disputed airspace and maritime routes of Asia.
Referring to the recent development, Wu foresaw more foreign military involvement in the waterway and said the expanded presence of foreign military activities in the South China Sea represented a pressing new challenge that China must confront.
“These military operations may extend beyond conventional naval and aerial manoeuvres, poised to broaden into the spheres of unmanned equipment and undersea activities,” he said.
Wu, who is chairman of the Huayang Centre for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance in Hainan, has emphasised the urgent need for crisis-management mechanisms and legally binding rules to govern military interactions in the air and at sea, to prevent collisions.
US President Donald Trump has yet to articulate a clear US position or strategy on the South China Sea issues. According to Wu, this is because Trump is occupied with domestic issues, and the maritime dispute is not his priority.
“At this juncture, forecasting the future policy direction of the United States in the South China Sea is challenging, particularly in terms of the level of US military support extended to the Philippines. It may take from six months to a year to fully discern how Washington’s policy in the region will evolve,” he said.
The Trump administration may re-evaluate the value of the US-Philippine military alliance and the military support offered to the Philippines throughout the years, according to Wu.
“In a sense, the provocative encouragement by Washington is unlikely to exceed what occurred during the Biden era,” he said.
Ian Bremmer, founder and president of the New York-based Eurasia Group, also said Trump would be more focused on bilateral trade unless Chinese action or a sudden conflict drew his attention to the South China Sea.
“But short of that, I don’t think this is a policy priority for him,” he told the Post on the sidelines of the Munich conference.
During a panel discussion about the waterway during the conference, former Chinese deputy foreign minister Fu Ying expressed concern that “the shadow of the US” behind the claimant’s actions was alarming to China.


Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s defence minister, indicated in the panel discussion that the conflict extended beyond mere territorial claims, with major global powers influencing the dynamics of the region.
“China’s actions in the South China Sea, if we are frank about it, are a response to US containment strategy … Now China is saddled with two conflicting goals. While it needs to show strength and power to the US and its allies, China also needs to manage its relations with its smaller neighbours in Asean,” Ng said.
“You either accept that there is strategic rivalry, the great game, is going on in the South China Sea or you don’t. And whether there are mechanisms to reduce conflict, whether external powers are needed, those are all self-evident questions with self-evident answers.”


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South China Sea

Beijing ready with fresh tactics if Manila launches new South China Sea case: expert

Wu Shicun, founder of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, says China will have a different strategy  and tools if Manila launches another arbitration case regarding Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea. Photo: Xinhua

Beijing, Philippines spar over South China Sea claims during Munich conference

Philippine’s Foreign Minister Enrique Manalo says powerful countries can “assert their own laws against weaker countries, leading to greater contention”. Photo: AFP

The presence of a dilapidated but still active Philippine Navy ship BRP Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea has been denounced as unacceptable by Beijing. Photo: AP

Fu Ying, China’s former vice-foreign minister, says China cannot agree to the Philippines to occupy the Second Thomas Shoal. Photo: Dickson Lee

Why South China Sea row is now an election hot-button issue for Philippines

 Protesters hold a rally to criticise agressive sea manoeuvres of Chinese defence units against Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, outside China’s consular office in Makati City, Metro Manila, in June 2024. Photo: EPA-EFE

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr (centre) reacts during a rally in Laoag City, Ilocos Norte, about 500km north of Manila, on Tuesday. Photo: EPA-EFE

A Chinese coastguard boat sails around Sandy Cay in the South China Sea in January. Photo: Philippine Coast Guard via AP

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General Romeo Brawner Jnr ( 2nd from right), Armed Forces of the Philippines chief, listens to an underwater drone explanation of an exhibitor at the 5th Asian Defence and Security Exhibition in Manila last year. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

Filipino coastguard crews witnessed the dangerous manoeuvre of a Chinese coastguard vessel on March 23, 2024 during a regular resupply mission in the West Philippine Sea. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

A submarine model from a South Korean shipbuilder was showcased at last year’s 5th Asian Defence and Security Exhibition in Manila. Photo: Jeoffrey Maitem

South China Sea: US urged to avoid frontal role, enable Philippines to lead

Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 is hit by Chinese coastguard water cannon blasts as it tries to enter the Second Thomas Shoal, locally known as Ayungin Shoal, in the disputed South China Sea on March 5, 2024. Photo: AP

Two Philippine Air Force FA-50 fighter jets fly with two US Air Force B-1 bomber aircraft during a joint patrol and training over the South China Sea on February 4. Photo: Philippine Air Force via AP

Philippine Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Ma. Theresa P. Lazaro (left) and Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Chen Xiaodong shake hands during the bilateral consultation mechanism on the South China Sea meeting, in Manila on July 2, 2024. Photo: Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs / AFP

Chinese coastguard personnel hold an axe as they approach Philippine troops on a resupply mission in the Second Thomas Shoal at the disputed South China Sea on June 17, 2024. Photo: Armed Forces of the Philippines via AP

China and Vietnam cause most damage to South China Sea’s corals: report

Divers swim above damaged staghorn corals off Malaysia’s Tioman island in the South China Sea. Photo: Reuters

Fishing nets on the seabed in the waters of the Second Thomas Shoal, referred to by Beijing as Ren’ai Jiao. Photo: Xinhua

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China

Diplomacy

On sidelines of Munich Security Conference, Chinese maritime analyst Wu Shicun says Beijing has new tools since Hague ruling in 2016


On sidelines of Munich Security Conference, Chinese maritime analyst Wu Shicun says Beijing has new tools since Hague ruling in 2016.


Beijing ready with fresh tactics if Manila launches new South China Sea case: expert

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}On sidelines of Munich Security Conference, Chinese maritime analyst Wu Shicun says Beijing has new tools since Hague ruling in 2016

On sidelines of Munich Security Conference, Chinese maritime analyst Wu Shicun says Beijing has new tools since Hague ruling in 2016