2024 US congressional races: what to expect and how China plays a role

(Editor’s note: This report has been updated in light of race ratings finalised on November 1, including the shift of the Pennsylvania Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up”.) America’s 2024 general election has many quirks like divergent voting processes, the outsize influence of “swing states” and uncertainties about how congressional results will affect the next president’s ability to govern. In the third of a four-part series, the South China Morning Post takes a closer look at the battle for control of the US Senate and House of Representatives, as well as where China has played a notable campaign role. Along with exercising their choice for US president on November 5, American voters will cast their ballots for members of the US Senate and House of Representatives. In recent years, the US Congress has taken an increasingly active role in shaping the country’s China policy. As a separate branch of government, Congress drafts laws, approves budgets and conducts oversight of the executive branch’s activities. The political party in control of a congressional chamber sets its legislative and oversight agenda. Bills must clear both chambers before they can become law. As happens every two years, all 435 House seats are up for grabs. At present, the Republicans hold a 220-212 edge over the Democrats, with three seats vacant. Democrats need to flip four seats and reclaim two of the three vacant seats to reach the 218 seats required for control of the House, while Republicans hope to expand their narrow majority. According to the Cook Political Report, which analyses US political races, the House has 192 solid or likely Democratic seats and 200 that are solid or likely going to the Republicans, as of November 1. The Cook Political Report deploys four ratings in order of increasing competitiveness: solid, likely, lean and toss-up. In the House, 22 seats are deemed toss-ups, meaning either party has a good chance of winning. Thirteen seats have been identified as leaning Democratic, while eight lean Republican. Unlike their House counterparts, senators are elected for six-year terms. In the 100-seat Senate, 34, or about one-third, are up for grabs this cycle. Republicans are breathing easier in that 38 of their seats are not up for election, while 28 Democratic seats are also off the ballot. By most accounts, Republicans appear poised to take control of the Senate, which Democrats currently hold with a razor-thin majority of 51 seats. As of November 1, the Cook Political Report identifies four toss-up races in the Senate – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – along with two that lean Democratic and three that lean Republican. Even if Democrats were to win all 17 of their safe, likely and leaning Senate seats and take the four toss-ups, they would only have 49 seats. While China is not central to most campaigns and individual races are unlikely to change the trajectory of China policy, some lawmakers could have outsize impact on specific matters due to their position and backgrounds. Here are some races that could influence future policy or where China has played a notable campaign role. 1. Competitive Senate races Michigan, toss-up The retirement of four-term Democratic senator Debbie Stabenow has set up a fight between House Democrat Elissa Slotkin and former Republican House intelligence committee chair Mike Rogers to succeed her. Both have built their reputations on national security and expressed concern over related risks posed by Gotion, a Chinese EV battery maker looking to set up a facility in the state. Unlike Slotkin, Rogers, who has been out of political office since 2015, highlights tackling China as one of his four priorities on his campaign page. The former FBI agent has funded ads accusing Slotkin of concealing information about the Gotion plant. Slotkin, a former Pentagon and CIA official, recently led an effort to push Mexico to address national-security concerns about Chinese electric vehicles that could be shipped to the US, and sponsored legislation to sharpen scrutiny of Chinese real-estate purchases. Ohio, toss-up Three-term Democratic senator and banking committee chair Sherrod Brown is locked in a tight race with Republican businessman Bernie Moreno. “Beat Communist China” is among Moreno’s 16 listed campaign priorities, along with restoring American manufacturing and energy independence. Brown, meanwhile, does not list China as a campaign priority but has long pushed for combating China’s unfair trade practices. Running on a pro-labour track record, Brown has recently intensified pressure on the Biden administration to get tougher on trade, calling for stronger tariffs on Chinese goods and for barring mainland companies from accessing clean-energy tax credits. Pennsylvania, toss-up Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jnr has been a central figure in pushing for stricter controls on outbound investment to China. On the campaign trail, Casey has attacked his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, for his role in running investor Ray Dalio’s hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, which had significant business in China. McCormick, however, has distanced himself from the firm and made “ending China’s free rein” a campaign priority. McCormick oversaw export controls under former president George W. Bush’s Commerce Department and is married to Donald Trump’s former deputy national security adviser for strategy, Dina Powell. Wisconsin, toss-up Two-term Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin has dedicated a page of her campaign website to “winning the competition with China” and highlighted her record of protecting American jobs from China in her first ad for her re-election campaign. Baldwin has also recently led efforts to push the Biden administration to investigate China’s trade practices in the shipbuilding industry. Her opponent, Republican businessman Eric Hovde, touts standard party rhetoric on China, focusing on its role in the fentanyl epidemic and purchases of agricultural land. Texas, leaning Republican Republican incumbent Ted Cruz, one of several lawmakers sanctioned by Beijing, faces a strong challenge from Democratic congressman Colin Allred. As one of Congress’s most vocal China hawks, Cruz has sponsored numerous bills spanning everything from tackling Chinese land purchases near military sites to allowing Taiwan to display its flag at official US events. For his part, Allred, a member of the House foreign affairs committee, has called for balancing views of China as the US’s “largest trading partner” and holding it “accountable for human-rights abuses and increasing aggression in the region”. Arizona, leaning Democratic With the retirement of one-term independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema, Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego and his Republican challenger, Kari Lake, are squaring off. Since taking office in 2015, Gallego, a US Marine corps veteran and House armed services committee member, has led a delegation to Taiwan and made statements calling China an “adversary” and condemning “genocide” in the country. His legislative record on China is thin; earlier this year, Gallego introduced a bill to curb imports of vaping products from China. Lake, a former TV anchor, has a thinner record on foreign policy, and has adopted typical Republican lines on China. Other contests In Nebraska, Republican incumbent Deb Fischer faces a tighter-than-expected challenge from political newcomer and US Navy veteran Dan Osborn. The race is rated as leaning Republican. In Nevada, Democratic senator Jacky Rosen faces a strong challenge from retired US Army captain Sam Brown in a race that is rated as leaning Democratic. In Montana, Democratic senator Jon Tester is up against Republican businessman and former Navy Seal Tim Sheehy in a race that is rated as leaning Republican. 2. Competitive House races Michelle Steel, a Republican congresswoman from California and member of the House select committee on China, faces a stern test from Democrat Derek Tran, a trial lawyer and US Army veteran. Steel, first elected to Congress in 2020, has sponsored legislation on increasing military aid to Taiwan and keeping Beijing out of the US military supply chain. The 2022 midterms saw a politicisation of Asian-American identity, with Steel’s Taiwanese-American challenger portrayed as being favoured by Beijing. Tran, whose family fled Vietnam and who has made anti-Communist Party comments on the campaign trail, is expected to be better able to fend off any ‘red-scare’ tactics. Other toss-up races featuring lawmakers active in foreign policy involve Nebraska Republican and armed services committee member Don Bacon; New Jersey Republican and foreign affairs committee member Tom Kean Jnr; and Pennsylvania Democrat and foreign affairs committee member Susan Wild. Wild serves on the Congressional-Executive Commission on China (CECC), a bicameral, bipartisan body tasked with tracking developments on the mainland in the rule of law and human rights. 3. Notable returnees Andy Kim, a Democratic congressman from New Jersey, is expected to win a US Senate seat in the state. As a member of the House select committee on China, Kim has called out “reckless” rhetoric relating to Beijing and pushed for considering the bilateral relationship through a more cooperative and long-term lens. Meanwhile, Republican congressman Jim Banks is running for a vacated US Senate seat in Indiana, which is solidly Republican. Banks, who also sits on the House select committee on China, has repeatedly pushed for ending China’s preferential trade status and curbing its political and cultural influence in the US. Earlier this year, Banks led a push for an investigation into 2024 US vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz’s China ties. Republican senator Josh Hawley of Missouri, a strident China hawk since taking office in 2019, holds a safe seat. Hawley has introduced legislation to raise tariffs on Chinese imports and end China’s preferential trade status. Another of Congress’s loudest and most consistent China critics, Rick Scott of Florida, finds himself in a race that is “likely” pointing to Republican victory. Scott recently introduced legislation pushing for financial decoupling from China as well as advocated ending congressionally funded travel to China. Democrat Tim Kaine of Virginia and Angus King of Maine, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, are expected to win their respective races. Kaine and King sponsored a bipartisan bill that would create a bipartisan commission to develop a “whole-of-government” approach to tackling China. Most of the 23 members of the House select committee on China are expected to return, including its Republican chair, John Moolenaar of Michigan, and top Democrat, Raja Krishnamoorthi of Illinois. Should Republicans keep control of the chamber, House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana has indicated that the select committee, which was founded last year, would be renewed. Long-time congressman Chris Smith of New Jersey, the Republican chair of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China, is expected to win his race. Democratic congressman Jim McGovern of Massachusetts, another stalwart human-rights hawk on the CECC, holds a safe Democratic seat. McGovern, the top Democrat on the rules committee, was also a key voice against the advancement of the Biosecure Act, which aims to block five Chinese biotech companies from America’s pharmaceutical supply chain. Asian-American House members like Ted Lieu and Judy Chu, both of California, have each advocated a more careful approach to efforts aimed at addressing China’s economic influence. Their seats are considered safe. 4. Notable exits Patrick McHenry, a Republican congressman from North Carolina and chair of the powerful House financial services committee, is not seeking re-election. McHenry, a relatively young lawmaker at 48, was crucial to blocking legislation aimed at curbing outbound US investment to China. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, a Republican congresswoman from Washington state and chair of the House energy and commerce committee, is retiring. McMorris Rodgers was instrumental to advancing legislation to compel ByteDance to divest short-video app TikTok, and has raised concerns about the national-security risks posed by mainland e-commerce platforms. Ben Cardin of Maryland, a foreign-policy mainstay and chair of the Senate foreign relations committee who sponsored several pieces of legislation on China’s human-rights abuses, is retiring after four decades in Congress. Other exiting House lawmakers include Ohio Republican Brad Wenstrup, sponsor of the Biosecure Act and leader of the House probe into Covid origins; Missouri Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer, a member of the House select committee on China; and Maryland Democrat Jennifer Wexton, a human-rights advocate who served on the CECC.

2024 US congressional races: what to expect and how China plays a role

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Concerns about Beijing loom in some contests as Democrats seek to hang on to the Senate and Republicans eye expanding their House majority

Concerns about Beijing loom in some contests as Democrats seek to hang on to the Senate and Republicans eye expanding their House majority