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Hong Kong Film Awards 2026 predictions: Ciao UFO, Back to the Past and more
SCMP film editor Edmund Lee forecasts the best film, director, screenplay, actors and supporting actors at this weekend’s 44th HKFA
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This year’s Hong Kong Film Awards (HKFA) arrives under an unprecedented cloud of controversy, making Sunday’s 44th edition at the Hong Kong Cultural Centre one of the most heavily scrutinised ceremonies in the event’s history.
The industry has been reeling ever since the pre-emptive disqualification of four eligible films in early January: Valley of the Shadow of Death, Vital Signs, Finch & Midland and Mother Bhumi.
This opaque and as-yet-unexplained move by the HKFA effectively removed realistic contenders – such as Anthony Wong Chau-sang and Fan Bingbing – from the race and cast a chilling pall over the proceedings.
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It is an unwanted development in what has already been a subpar year for local cinema. The resulting slate is heavily reliant on “urban myth” titles: highly anticipated projects like Sons of the Neon Night, Back to the Past and Ciao UFO that wrapped production years ago but languished on the shelf until they were released in 2025.
Despite the noise offstage, there are still worthy cinematic achievements to be celebrated. Below, South China Morning Post film editor Edmund Lee gives his predictions for who will win in the major categories.
Best film: Ciao UFO

Patrick Leung Pak-kin’s nostalgic drama about three former childhood friends bonded by a shared UFO sighting in 1985 has emerged as the definitive front-runner.
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