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Mandy Zuo

China is expected to slow sugar imports for the rest of the year as concerns grow over a global supply crunch and higher prices, with Thailand – the world’s second-largest exporter – facing a sharp drop in production.
The world’s second-largest economy relies on imports for about a third of its sugar supply, though high domestic stockpiles are expected to cushion the impact. Analysts estimated only moderate increases in local prices for the sweetener, which is considered a strategic agricultural commodity under Beijing’s food security agenda.
Thailand’s sugar production was projected to drop by at least 17 per cent for the coming 2026 to 2027 season, largely because of El Nino-driven dryness, Bloomberg reported on Monday. The Thai Sugar Millers Corp. anticipated total output to fall below 10 million tonnes, down from 12 million tonnes the previous season.
The forecasts follow a steady rise in global sugar prices over the past month amid persistent supply concerns.
Niu Zhe, an analyst at bulk commodity consultancy Sublime China Information, noted that China’s import policy for the sweetener had already shown signs of tightening during the 2025 to 2026 crushing season.
“With domestic production expected to remain strong in the 2026 to 2027 season and the cost of importing raw sugar from Brazil and Thailand continuing to rise, the out-of-quota import window has completely closed, and the pace of imports is likely to slow markedly in the second half of the year,” he said.
China applies a 15 per cent tariff on sugar imports up to 1.945 million tonnes, with a steeper 50 per cent duty on any volume above that threshold.


Official data showed that national sugar output for the 2025 to 2026 crushing season reached 12.95 million tonnes, up 16 per cent year on year and a 12-year high.
Industry association data from Yunnan province and Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, China’s two main sugar-producing regions, also showed industrial sugar inventories had risen sharply year on year by the end of July and remained elevated.
“Overall domestic supply will remain relatively ample, so the rise in domestic sugar prices is expected to be far smaller than that in the international market, with limited pass-through to everyday consumer prices,” Niu said.
In a report released last week, the International Sugar Organisation projected a global supply shortfall of 200,000 tonnes for the 2026 to 2027 season.
The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) also reported last week that its global sugar price index had jumped 11.9 per cent last month, raising the broader benchmark index for international food commodity prices.
The FAO attributed the increase to several factors. “The surge reflected expectations of lower sugar beet yields in the European Union due to adverse weather, concerns over the impact of El Nino on production prospects in key producing countries in Asia, lower sugar production in Brazil, and India’s announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports,” it said.
In August, India – the world’s third-largest sugar exporter – authorised the import of 1 million tonnes of sugar for the first time in a decade. The policy shift came amid expectations of lower domestic sugar cane production, driven partly by reduced rainfall linked to El Nino conditions.


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The major sugar importer is expected to lean on strong domestic supplies amid soaring international prices


The major sugar importer is expected to lean on strong domestic supplies amid soaring international prices.


Why China’s sugar stockpiles may blunt an El Nino-fuelled global supply crunch

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}The major sugar importer is expected to lean on strong domestic supplies amid soaring international prices

The major sugar importer is expected to lean on strong domestic supplies amid soaring international prices