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Emma Ma

Heightened geopolitical tensions are pushing global crude benchmarks towards the critical US$100-a-barrel threshold, and investment banks have lifted their end-2026 price forecasts, dampening import appetite in China – the world’s largest net crude importer.
Saudi Aramco oil installations at Jizan, home to a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery, were attacked on Monday, the Financial Times reported, with authorities assessing the damage.
Iranian-backed rebels had yet to claim responsibility for the latest attack, according to the report.
In the wake of the report, global crude markets saw renewed bullish momentum on Monday. Brent futures surged past US$98 a barrel during intraday trade. The benchmark edged higher in Tuesday afternoon trading, reaching its highest mark since June and getting close to the US$100 barrier.
Ongoing conflicts, as well as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, have provided additional support for elevated crude prices.
“Neither the US nor Iran has the willingness or capacity to escalate the existing conflicts, meaning negotiation channels will reopen,” said Zhao Xuyi, analyst at Shanghai-based Guotai Junan Futures. “Yet, talks can only de-escalate conflict intensity – they cannot resolve disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz or other underlying frictions.”


She added that under such conditions, the “ceasefire – negotiations – renewed conflicts” cycle will persist, keeping price volatility high.
Analysts appear to be converging on the outlook for crude prices.
Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end Brent forecast by US$5 – to US$85 per barrel – on Monday. Analysts at the bank, led by Daan Struyven, wrote that the revision reflected “our new assumption that Middle East shipping disruptions continue into 2027”.
The investment bank also mapped out extreme scenarios in which Brent could surge above US$120 a barrel if the average Gulf output in 2027 remains well below pre-war levels, while intensified Hormuz and Red Sea shipping attacks were the most likely trigger for further price gains.
Elevated crude prices pushed “price-sensitive” China to continue reducing crude oil imports in August, the bank’s analysts said.
Chinese customs data showed that the country imported roughly 37.92 million tonnes of crude oil last month, a year-on-year decline of 23.4 per cent. For the January-August period, total imports fell 14.6 per cent from a year earlier.
Goldman Sachs said that this trend was likely to persist while oil prices remain elevated.
“China crude demand should remain price-sensitive because investment in electric [vehicles] and coal-based petrochemical plants has increased flexibility to switch away from oil without much pressure on economic activity,” the bank’s analysts noted.
Meanwhile, they estimated that China’s visible crude stocks were sitting well above 1.1 billion barrels, with volumes “even higher when invisible stocks are included”.


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Geopolitical tensions and strikes on energy infrastructure are tightening supply expectations, threatening to push oil higher and curb China’s appetite for imports


Geopolitical tensions and strikes on energy infrastructure are tightening supply expectations, threatening to push oil higher and curb China’s appetite for imports.


Brent crude stares down the barrel of US$100 barrier as global frictions raise supply risk

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Geopolitical tensions and strikes on energy infrastructure are tightening supply expectations, threatening to push oil higher and curb China’s appetite for imports

Geopolitical tensions and strikes on energy infrastructure are tightening supply expectations, threatening to push oil higher and curb China’s appetite for imports