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Kandy Wong

China’s resumption of Canadian canola purchases, brokered during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s state visit to Beijing last month, faces an uncertain year, with upcoming North American trade talks posing a significant risk, industry players warn.
Beyond the initial shipments, some insiders said, there remained “no public assurance” that imports would continue uninterrupted, as the United States was likely to turn the region, through a renewed trade pact with Canada and Mexico, into a “fortress”.
Canola is an oilseed crop used to produce cooking oil and animal feed. And Canada is a dominant force in this market, producing nearly a quarter of the world’s canola supply while accounting for roughly 60 per cent of its global trade in recent years, according to Alberta Canola, a non-profit organisation representing producers.
This significant market position underscores why canola featured prominently in last month’s “preliminary but landmark” deal reached between Beijing and Ottawa, with tariffs on China-bound sales lowered to a combined rate of about 15 per cent from 84 per cent by March 1.
But for Masood Rizvi, a Saskatchewan-based specialist in agricultural tech and canola breeding, the deal is far from a complete fix, and he remains sceptical about the long-term outlook.
“I would be cautious about characterising the canola trade between China and Canada as having fully ‘returned to normal’,” he said. “What we are seeing now is a measured resumption, not yet a structural reset.
“At this stage, there is no public assurance that imports will continue uninterrupted beyond the initial cargoes.”
So far, at least 10 vessels of Canadian canola have been sent to China, with combined shipments of about 500,000 tonnes, according to information in Canadian media recently cited by Rabobank, a Dutch multinational banking and financial services company specialising in food, agriculture and energy.


However, industry players said that a full resumption of canola trade between both countries will broadly depend on how trade and diplomatic dynamics evolve over the coming months – especially with the upcoming renegotiation of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) later this year. The free-trade agreement took effect in July 2020, replacing the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Kelvin Heppner, a farmer from Manitoba, Canada, also said that more clarity was needed on whether tariff relief would be extended beyond the end of 2026, and on what it would take to be extended.
“Local bids have moved incrementally higher, but it’s still too early to get a clear picture of how much canola has been booked by Chinese customers,” he added, noting the renewed demand is “certainly good news” for farmers in western Canada, as China has been the second-largest market for Canadian canola.
Canada was still the top canola exporter for China in 2025, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, followed by Mongolia and Russia, which respectively took second and third place.
Historically, China has been the top market for Canadian canola seed and the No 2 market for Canadian canola meal, according to the Canola Council of Canada, and the industry organisation is looking for this initial resumption to “translate into meaningful commercial export activity”.
The Chinese reaction to … Canada-US talks will likely be governed by the domestic supply situation and whether they need Canadian agricultural imports
Kelvin Heppner, Canadian farmer
“The canola trade between Canada and China provides Canadian farmers who plant canola with a sense of confidence that there will be demand for the canola they produce, and that will positively impact the return they receive for their canola when they go to sell it,” the council said in an emailed reply to the South China Morning Post.
Canada was previously China’s top source of imported canola, supplying the vast majority of China’s imports of the crop in 2023 and 2024, according to official Chinese figures, but tensions between Beijing and Ottawa directly led to a drop in Canadian canola shipments, and Australia emerged last year as an alternative supplier.
“China does import canola from multiple origins as part of its diversification strategy, but Canadian canola remains highly competitive due to consistent quality, traceability and well-established logistics and crushing compatibility,” said Rizvi from Saskatchewan.
“These factors make Canada a reliable supplier, especially when Chinese buyers are looking to balance price, quality and supply security.”
Looking ahead, Heppner from Manitoba said that the USMCA renegotiation would likely lead to more emphasis on what he deemed “Fortress North America” – a protectionist stance aimed at strengthening regional trade barriers against outside competitors such as China – and this risks raising the ire of Beijing.
“Ultimately, the Chinese reaction to anything coming out of Canada-US talks will likely be governed by the domestic supply situation and whether they need Canadian agricultural imports,” he added.


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Initial shipments bring hope, but ‘Fortress North America’ threat and lack of long-term guarantees leave producers wary of Beijing’s commitment


Initial shipments bring hope, but ‘Fortress North America’ threat and lack of long-term guarantees leave producers wary of Beijing’s commitment.


China-Canada canola deal faces fragility test as USMCA trade talks loom, insiders warn

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Initial shipments bring hope, but ‘Fortress North America’ threat and lack of long-term guarantees leave producers wary of Beijing’s commitment

Initial shipments bring hope, but ‘Fortress North America’ threat and lack of long-term guarantees leave producers wary of Beijing’s commitment