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Luna Sun

China’s export growth surged in the first two months of this year, as global demand booms, while experts pointed to the likelihood of strong momentum for the rest of the year as AI-driven tech investments ramp up.
Exports jumped 21.8 per cent from a year earlier – the biggest gain in four years – to US$656.58 billion in the combined figures for January and February released by customs authorities on Tuesday.
This represented a significant acceleration from the 6.6 per cent growth recorded in December and the 5.5 per cent rise recorded for all of last year.
China often combines trade data for the first two months of the year to smooth out distortions caused by the Chinese New Year holiday period – which began in January last year and took place in February this year – and to represent underlying trends more consistently.
But economists said the holiday impact could not fully account for the surprisingly strong data seen in the first two months.


The surge is “mainly a reflection of strong global demand, especially for tech products, which are central to many economies”, said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie Group, but “whether the momentum lasts will depend largely on how long the AI-driven tech boom continues”.
“The buoyant external demand also implies less urgency to boost domestic demand,” he added.
Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, echoed that sentiment, pointing out that “strong exports and a lower growth target suggest that China is unlikely to launch stimulus [measures] any time soon”.
After a year of turbulent trade ties and tariff hikes between China and the United States, exports to the US fell 11 per cent, year on year, in the first two months of 2026, the data showed, compared with a 30 per cent decline in December and a 20 per cent drop for all of last year. Despite the slump, the US remained China’s largest single-country export market in 2025.
Meanwhile, shipments to members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – China’s largest trading partner by bloc – jumped 29.4 per cent in the first two months of this year, following growth of 11.2 per cent in December and 13.4 per cent for all of last year.
Exports to the European Union surged by 27.8 per cent in the first two months of the year, compared with an 11.6 per cent rise in December and 8.4 per cent growth for all of last year, with shipments to Germany, France and Italy seeing 31.3, 31.9 and 36.4 per cent growth, respectively.


Some of China’s major trading partners have been pressuring China to address the trade imbalance, and “the strong export growth today will likely reinforce their argument”, Zhang said.
Exports to Latin America climbed 16.4 per cent in the first two months of the year after growing by 9.8 per cent in December, while shipments to Africa jumped nearly 50 per cent after expanding by 21.8 per cent in December.
China also increased crude purchases early this year to bolster energy security, and the move comes as geopolitical risks in the Middle East are increasingly clouding the outlook for the global oil supply while raising concerns about disruptions.
China imported 96.93 million tonnes of crude in January and February, up 15.8 per cent from the same period in 2025.
Total imports for the first two months rose by 19.8 per cent from a year earlier – accelerating from December’s 5.7 per cent growth – and created a trade surplus of US$213.6 billion.
A clearer pattern of so-called de-Americanisation is emerging in China’s trade flows, with commerce increasingly shifting towards other partners. In the first two months of the year, in addition to weak US-bound exports, China’s imports from the US plunged 26.7 per cent, year on year, standing out sharply against strong growth from other suppliers, including India, South Korea and Australia, from which China bought 43.1 per cent, 35.8 per cent and 33.8 per cent more, year-on-year, respectively.


The shift comes as relations between the world’s two largest economies remain strained, even with US President Donald Trump expected to visit China later this month – a trip that will be watched for signs of whether trade tensions could ease.
Last year’s 5.5 per cent export growth propelled the annual value of China’s outbound shipments to US$3.77 trillion, according to customs data, with the surge in exports contributing to a record merchandise trade surplus of US$1.19 trillion.
China’s rare earth exports rose 23 per cent by volume in the January to February period, reaching 10,468.3 tonnes, customs data showed. For December, it exported 4,392.1 tonnes of rare earths.
For the rest of the year, Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, expects export momentum to become increasingly concentrated in hi-tech sectors such as semiconductors and the broader artificial intelligence supply chain, with strong overseas demand for power equipment and cars offsetting weakness elsewhere.
At the same time, structural shifts are under way, with policies aimed at reining in solar panel and steel production and the long-term decline of labour-intensive sectors like garment and footwear manufacturing reshaping China’s export mix.
By export product, semiconductors alone jumped 72.6 per cent in value to US$43.3 billion in January and February. Meanwhile, overall hi-tech exports saw a 26.9 per cent year-on-year surge.
Shipments of cars and ships also saw robust growth in the two months, rising in value by 67.1 per cent and 52.8 per cent, respectively.
Additional reporting by Xinyi Wu


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Despite an 11 per cent drop in US exports, China’s trade soared, buoyed by robust demand from Asean, the EU and other markets


Despite an 11 per cent drop in US exports, China’s trade soared, buoyed by robust demand from Asean, the EU and other markets.


Trade boom: China’s exports surge 21.8% to start 2026 – biggest gain in 4 years

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Despite an 11 per cent drop in US exports, China’s trade soared, buoyed by robust demand from Asean, the EU and other markets

Despite an 11 per cent drop in US exports, China’s trade soared, buoyed by robust demand from Asean, the EU and other markets