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He Huifeng

Xinyi Wu

The Chinese economy showed signs of slowing in April, as industrial output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment all missed expectations amid a deepening global energy crisis, the latest data shows.
Retail sales rose by just 0.2 per cent year on year in April, well below the 1.7 per cent growth recorded in March, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday. Economists polled by the Yicai Research Institute had forecast a 2 per cent increase.
China’s industrial output, meanwhile, grew by 4.1 per cent year on year in April, down from 5.7 per cent the previous month and below a 5.63 per cent projection by economists polled by financial data provider Wind.
Fu Linghui, a bureau spokesperson, stressed at a press briefing that the Chinese economy had shown “strong resilience” despite the prolonged Middle East conflict, volatile energy prices and disruptions to global supply chains.
“However, we must also recognise that there are currently many external uncertainties, and the cost pressures on enterprises have increased, with some enterprises still facing difficulties,” he added.
China’s economy recorded strong growth through the first quarter of 2026 despite the breakout of the US-Israel war on Iran, with the country’s gross domestic product rising 5 per cent year on year – at the top end of the government’s 4.5 per cent to 5 per cent annual target.
But geopolitical volatility fuelled by the conflict in the Middle East appears to be increasingly weighing on the world’s second-largest economy as the war drags on.
Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, said the data for April was “weaker than the market expected”. The slowdown in domestic demand in particular stood out, he said, pointing to a “visible” softening of domestic car and appliance sales.


But Zhang added that “I don’t expect the government to change policy stance just because of one month of weak data”. Beijing is more likely to “keep monitoring the economy and reassess” in July, after GDP data for the second quarter is released, he said.
China’s overall fixed-asset investment – covering major items such as infrastructure, manufacturing and property construction – contracted by 1.6 per cent year on year during the January-April period, compared with growth of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of this year.
Real estate investment, a heavy drag on economic growth last year, fell by 13.7 per cent year on year in the first four months. The continued slump suggests that the property market is still in the process of bottoming out.
Zhang Yuhan, principal economist at the Conference Board’s China Centre, said April’s data suggested that China’s investment remained state-oriented and manufacturing-centric – with sectors such as mining, textile manufacturing and transport equipment manufacturing seeing double-digit growth despite the overall decline.
There was also a “divergence” in the retail data, Zhang noted, with consumers focusing on smaller lifestyle items and technology upgrades while holding back on long-cycle, credit-intensive purchases – a trend he blamed on weak confidence due to the ongoing property downturn and uncertainties in the job market.
According to data from the China Passenger Car Association, sales of new energy passenger vehicles – including electric and hybrid cars – reached about 849,000 units in April, down 6.8 per cent year on year.
In brighter news, China’s urban unemployment rate stood at 5.2 per cent in April, compared with 5.4 per cent in March and 5.3 per cent in February, indicating that the job market has been less affected by disruptions from artificial intelligence and other factors than expected.


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Economy

China Economy

Economic Indicators

China’s retail sales growth fell to just 0.2 per cent in April, while industrial output and fixed-asset investment softened more than forecast


China’s retail sales growth fell to just 0.2 per cent in April, while industrial output and fixed-asset investment softened more than forecast.


China’s economy ‘weaker than expected’ in April as Iran war headwinds bite

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}China’s retail sales growth fell to just 0.2 per cent in April, while industrial output and fixed-asset investment softened more than forecast

China’s retail sales growth fell to just 0.2 per cent in April, while industrial output and fixed-asset investment softened more than forecast