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Luna Sun

China’s marriage registrations edged up in 2025, offering a glimmer of hope for the birth outlook this year, but analysts caution that deeper demographic headwinds remain entrenched and difficult to reverse without broader policy support.
China recorded 6.76 million marriage registrations nationwide in 2025, according to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, marking a 10.8 per cent increase from a year earlier, or 657,000 more couples.
The number of marriage registrations is closely watched in China, as it typically serves as a strong indicator of birth trends in the following year, with extramarital births still considered taboo in many parts of the country.
Last year’s modest increase in marriages came as China’s birth count plummeted to a record low of 7.92 million, having declined by about 10 million from its 2016 peak while slashing the total by more than half in less than a decade, as the country’s population shrank for a fourth consecutive year.


The nation’s shrinking population, compounded by a rapidly ageing demographic, has proved problematic for Beijing’s efforts to revive economic growth. Economists and demographers have noted that, with a shrinking workforce and fewer workers to support each retiree, China risks weaker productivity gains; mounting pension and healthcare burdens; and a prolonged drag on domestic demand.
China’s total population fell by 3.39 million in 2025 to 1.4049 billion, from 1.4083 billion a year earlier, according to official data. By sheer numbers, that marked the steepest annual population decline on record, apart from during China’s devastating famine from 1959 to 1961.
The rise in marriages in 2025, as well as a wave of pro-birth support measures, has created a potential boost to births next year, and “a modest rebound in newborns” is expected to appear in 2026, said He Yafu, an independent demographer based in China’s southern Guangdong province.
“But over the longer term, reversing the sustained decline in births will be far more challenging, given the shrinking number of women of childbearing age, persistently weak fertility intentions among young people, and the continued postponement of marriage and childbearing,” he said, adding that robust and sustained policy support was needed.


Demographers say the rise in marriages signalled that a host of pro-marriage policies were starting to pay off, while traditional customs may also have played a role.
In the lunar calendar, 2025 is a “double spring” year – a period when two start-of-spring solar terms fall within the same lunar year, which is traditionally considered an auspicious time to wed.
Since March 2025, under new State Council regulations, couples can register for marriage anywhere in the country without presenting a household registration document, or hukou booklet – a requirement that had long posed hurdles for those living and working away from their hometowns.
Local governments have also rolled out a range of incentives to encourage couples to wed. So far, 29 provinces have extended their marriage-leave policies well beyond the national minimum of three days, with some regions offering newlyweds up to 30 days off.
Cities are offering cash rewards and consumption vouchers for those who walk down the aisle, while allowing for a variety of new settings where they can register their marriages, from parks to music festivals – or even a nightclub in Shanghai.


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Double-digit jump in registration rate, boosted by policy and cultural tradition, offers modest upturn, but demographers are wary of weak fertility intentions


Double-digit jump in registration rate, boosted by policy and cultural tradition, offers modest upturn, but demographers are wary of weak fertility intentions.


China’s marriage rebound: will more 2025 knots bring more baby bumps in 2026?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Double-digit jump in registration rate, boosted by policy and cultural tradition, offers modest upturn, but demographers are wary of weak fertility intentions

Double-digit jump in registration rate, boosted by policy and cultural tradition, offers modest upturn, but demographers are wary of weak fertility intentions