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He Huifeng

China’s premier manufacturing hub is recalibrating its economic ambitions, with policymakers in the industrial heartland of Guangdong setting a cautious growth target for 2026, signalling a strategic shift amid intensifying external pressures and internal regional imbalances.
The southern province, bordering Hong Kong, expects its gross domestic product to grow between 4.5 and 5 per cent this year, its governor, Meng Fanli, said on Monday while delivering the annual government work report at the opening of the Guangdong provincial people’s congress.
The proposed growth range marks a downward adjustment from last year’s target of around 5 per cent but is in line with the 2026 national target reported by the Post on Friday.
The move comes after the province fell short of that 5 per cent target amid a persistent drag from the property market. Guangdong is home to major troubled developers such as Evergrande, Vanke and Country Garden.
Official data showed Guangdong’s GDP grew in 2025 by 3.9 per cent, year on year, ranking poorly among the mainland’s 31 provincial-level jurisdictions. Nationwide, the economy grew by 5 per cent last year.
The province’s economy continues to face a mix of long-standing issues and emerging challenges, Meng said in the report.
The provincial governor added that external headwinds persist, domestic demand remains underutilised and regional imbalances endure, while investment momentum is weak and enterprises face pressure on operations, employment and income growth.
According to the work report, Guangdong’s policy priorities for 2026 include advancing the next phase of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area integration, reinforcing manufacturing as the backbone of the real economy, accelerating technological self-reliance, and fostering the joint development of various forms of ownership while stabilising external trade and promoting the development of a unified national market.


Analysts said the more restrained growth target reflects a shift from headline expansion towards resilience and long-term structural upgrading, with policy efforts increasingly focused on innovation and manufacturing.
“Innovation is replacing traditional factor inputs as Guangdong’s main growth engine, but a stabilisation in fixed-asset investment will determine whether growth can be sustained at about 5 per cent in the coming years,” said Qu Jian, a deputy of the provincial people’s congress and also vice-president of the Shenzhen-based China Development Institute think tank.
In absolute terms, Guangdong remains the country’s top provincial economy, with a size of about 14.7 trillion yuan (US$2.11 trillion) – approaching the GDP of Canada or Italy.
As China’s most trade-dependent provincial economy, Guangdong remains highly exposed to shifts in external demand. The provincial government set a foreign trade growth target of 3 per cent for 2026, lower than last year’s 4.4 per cent actual increase.
Exports to emerging markets and countries that engage in China’s Belt and Road Initiative were expected to provide partial support, as the province works to establish a more resilient long-term trade-buffer mechanism, the governor said in the report.
The province needs to “proactively explore all potential markets and sources of growth”, Meng added.
Building a stronger modern industrial system – particularly by accelerating the development of emerging and future industries – remains a key policy priority. Meng said the province would increase both the scale and share of spending on science and technology, improve government funding mechanisms, and boost overall research and development investment.
Guangdong’s total R&D spending reached 535 billion yuan last year, up 4.9 per cent, year on year.
The province expects fixed-asset investment to grow by 5 per cent in 2026. Meanwhile, retail sales are projected to rise 5 per cent this year, after growing by 2.8 per cent to 4.6 trillion yuan last year. Growth in per capita disposable income is set to broadly track economic expansion.
Other economic powerhouses have already started to reveal their 2026 growth targets. Zhejiang, an eastern province home to Alibaba Group and robotics firm Unitree, set its GDP growth target at 5 to 5.5 per cent for this year, compared with an “around 5.5 per cent” target set last year. Alibaba owns the South China Morning Post.
The capital city of Beijing, meanwhile, has set its growth target at about 5 per cent, unchanged from last year. Over its 15th five-year plan period spanning 2026 to 2030, the capital aims to keep annual growth in a range of 4.5 to 5 per cent.
Additional reporting by Mia Nurmamat


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Guangdong province, an industrial behemoth hit by property and global headwinds, shifts focus in a strategic pivot amid national reforms


Guangdong province, an industrial behemoth hit by property and global headwinds, shifts focus in a strategic pivot amid national reforms.


China’s manufacturing powerhouse cuts 2026 GDP growth target after missing mark

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Guangdong province, an industrial behemoth hit by property and global headwinds, shifts focus in a strategic pivot amid national reforms

Guangdong province, an industrial behemoth hit by property and global headwinds, shifts focus in a strategic pivot amid national reforms