Why I am making ‘good trouble’ for Hong Kong, the city I love

Even with the city’s famed Phoenix-like ability to rise from setbacks, it may be beyond Hong Kong to overcome the triple whammy of a loss of its high degree of political autonomy, the protracted malaise of the mainland economy, and the US-China power struggle

This sobering view should serve as a wake-up call for Hong Kong

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Stephen Roach

Stephen S.

Published: 9:30am, 27 Feb 2024Updated: 10:13am, 27 Feb 2024

I love Hong Kong. Yet I now find myself in the uncomfortable position as a naysayer. My recent opinion piece in the Financial Times, “It pains me to say Hong Kong is over”, has stirred up considerable controversy in the city I used to call home. Unsurprisingly, Hong Kong politicians have been especially critical. But former colleagues, business associates and good friends have also raised concerns. A response is in order.

While no nation, economy or city is ever definitively “over”, the title of my piece was intended to be more of a wake-up call to a city that has long prided itself as Asia’s world city, the gateway to China, one of the elite Asian tiger economies and Milton Friedman’s favourite free market.

I cited three reasons for saying Hong Kong’s glory days may now be over: a distinct loss of its high degree of political autonomy in the aftermath of the massive demonstrations of 2019-20; a weakening of Hong Kong’s economic underpinnings as a result of a protracted malaise in the mainland Chinese economy; and a squeeze from US-centric friendshoring that has forced Hong Kong’s East Asian trading partners to choose sides in coping with the crossfire of the Sino-American conflict.