Opinion

Japan won’t be swaggering on the world stage any time soon

While Fumio Kishida’s approval rating has dipped dangerously, the lack of a capable opposition means he is unlikely to lose his premiership

However, expectations for his time in office are low as a looming recession, inflation and absence of needed reforms are sapping what little political capital he has

4-MIN READ4-MIN

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida arrives at his official residence in Tokyo on December 6. Kishida’s dismal approval rating and inability to carry out reforms his party has promised have raised doubts about how long he can keep his premiership. Photo: EPA-EFE

William Pesek is a Tokyo-based journalist, former columnist for Barron’s and Bloomberg and author of “Japanization: What the World Can Learn from Japan’s Lost Decades”.

Published: 9:30am, 8 Dec 2023

Japan’s political establishment is seeing a bull market in déjà vu as pundits speculate on whether Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s days are numbered. With approval ratings as low as 21 per cent, Kishida makes US President Joe Biden seem almost beloved by voters.

That is well below the 30 per cent threshold that tends to represent the danger zone for Japanese governments. Seven of the last nine governments have lasted roughly one year. So will Kishida be shown the door in short order? Not necessarily.

Despite his extreme unpopularity after 26 months in office, Kishida benefits from opposition parties in disarray. This, by default, gives his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) a firm hold on power. But Kishida has an increasingly weak hand for tackling the troubles facing Asia’s second-biggest economy.

The most immediate threat is another recession. The 2.1 per cent contraction in the July-September period year on year comes as China’s economy slows and elevated US bond yields send headwinds Japan’s way. In other words, further shrinkage in the October-December quarter seems likely.