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Alice Wu

A recent survey found that 60 per cent of respondents were unaware of who was running for a directly elected seat in their constituency in the upcoming Legislative Council election.
The survey also revealed a record low level of voter enthusiasm – something the Hong Kong government and Beijing’s liaison office should take to heart. Officials need to prepare themselves for a low voter turnout at the polls, scheduled for December 19.
It makes sense. When some are barred from taking part, or when even the traditional pro-democracy groups all decide to sit out the contest, it is a disincentive to vote. Without someone to support, there is little reason to cast a ballot, regardless of whether the seats are contested.
So the survey results on voter enthusiasm, showing that only 52 per cent indicated they would “definitely” or “probably” vote next month – down from more than 80 per cent of voters who said the same prior to the previous four elections – sounds about right.
There is very little guesswork here; we also have the benefit of having Macau’s election experience two months ago as a guide.
Following the disqualification of 21 opposition figures from running in Macau’s Legislative Assembly election in September, the exemplar of “one country, two systems” saw a record low voter turnout at the polls. Only 42.38 per cent of voters cast their ballot in the patriots-only race, a drop from 57.22 per cent in the 2017 election.


More than 58 per cent of voters cast their ballots in Hong Kong’s last Legco election, in 2016. So, it is pretty safe to say that Hong Kong will be looking at numbers around the 40-45 per cent mark this time.
And, like Macau, Hong Kong should not expect the results to be striking in any way. Beijing did not lose any sleep over who won seats in Macau’s election, and it won’t be fretting over Hong Kong’s polls. The revamped electoral system, meant to ensure only patriots are elected by barring those who don’t measure up, is doing its job.
Rather, it is the votes that don’t count that could be cause for insomnia. What was striking about Macau’s election was the spike in blank and invalid votes: there were more than three times the number of blank votes – from 944 in 2017 to 3,141 in 2021 – beating even the number of invalid votes.
Back in 2017, there were more invalid votes than blank votes. This time, the number of invalid votes rose from 1,300 in 2017 to 2,082 this year. That had nothing to do with curbed enthusiasm; if anything, it takes more enthusiasm to go to the trouble of casting a vote that doesn’t count.
Only 2 opposition faces in elections – will Hong Kong politics mirror Macau’s?
The Macau authorities attributed the low turnout rate to Covid-19 and bad weather, but neither serves to explain the rise in blank and invalid votes.
Voters cannot be blamed for being underwhelmed; even the enthusiasm for electioneering work seems to have been curbed. It has been very quiet on the streets. Since the nomination period ended, I have only been approached by one person and handed one candidate promotional flier. So, why would voters be expected to know who is running in the election?
Given how the new electoral system has been designed, we know that most of the campaigning will happen off the streets, because those who are running in Election Committee constituencies are all vying for the support of the 1,448 voters. The impression that it is a game for a small circle of political elites is being cemented every day with the absence of public engagement.

Beijing needs to be aware of a possible crisis of election legitimacy should the “mood” and action on the streets remain quiet. This cannot only be attributed to the absence of the opposition; instead, it has everything to do with how disconnected the people feel politically.
The days of open defiance might be over, but being politically detached and uninvolved spells another type of trouble.
Alice Wu is a political consultant and a former associate director of the Asia Pacific Media Network at UCLA


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Hong Kong Legislative Council election 2021

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Posters promoting the upcoming Legislative Council election are seen in Admiralty on November 23. The lack of energy over the election is visible in the low voter enthusiasm and scarcity of candidates out on the streets. Photo: Felix Wong

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Banners for the Legislative Council general election nomination period are seen outside Hong Kong government headquarters in Tamar on November 9. Photo: Nora Tam

Nelson Wong announcing his bid for the 2018 legislative by-election in January that year; he did not win. Photo: Winson Wong

Maggie Chan (left) and singer Cally Kwong pose with face masks after taking part in the Universal Community Testing Programme at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre in Wan Chai on September 2, 2020. Photo: Sam Tsang

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Illustration by Lau Ka-kuen

Pro-democracy Sai Kung District Council member Daryl Choi Ming-hei meets the media after signing up for LegCo Election at Sai Kung Tseung Kwan O Government Complex. 08NOV21 SCMP / Edmond So

The University of Hong Kong Law School's Prof. Michael Davis, who's leaving HK after 3 decades here, poses for a photograph in HKU. 06JUL16 SCMP/ Dickson Lee

Vice-chairman of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, Beijing's top political think tank on Hong Kong, Professor Lau Siu-kai attends a RTHK radio programme in Kowloon Tong. 16DEC17 SCMP/ Xiaomei Chen

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A banner promotes next month’s Legislative Council election. Photo: Dickson Lee

Former Secretary for Security Lai Tung-kwok files his nomination for the 2021 Legislative Council General Election at the Central Government Offices (CGO), Tamar. Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee is there to support. 12NOV21. SCMP / Dickson Lee

Opinion


Record low levels of voter enthusiasm should worry the Hong Kong and central governments, even if they won’t be fretting over the election results
The impression that it is a game for a small circle of elites is being cemented every day with the absence of public engagement



Record low levels of voter enthusiasm should worry the Hong Kong and central governments, even if they won’t be fretting over the election results. The impression that it is a game for a small circle of elites is being cemented with the absence of public engagement.


Legislative Council of Hong Kong (Legco)

Hong Kong politics

Hong Kong electoral changes

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Hong Kong Legislative Council election 2021: Opinion

Expresses the views, ideas and conclusions of the author. (Eg. Enough of Crazy Rich Asians, think of crazy poor Hongkongers.)
