Vietnamese crab exporterdouble-skinned crabs
Advertisement
South Korea
Opinion

South Koreans are keeping calm, confident that not even Kim Jong-un wants mutual destruction

Joon Nak Choi says there is little sign of real panic in Seoul despite the heated rhetoric and regional preparations for hostilities, because they believe the Kim regime, no matter how ruthless, is neither stupid nor crazy. But what if they’re wrong?

3-MIN READ3-MIN
Kim Jong-un attends an army event on April 1 in Pyongyang, North Korea. South Koreans almost certainly understand that the South has a very substantial technological advantage, not least in weaponry, compared with the North. Photo: KCNA
Joon Nak Choi
A foreign observer might reasonably conclude that the two Koreas stand on the brink of war. US President Donald Trump recently called “a major, major conflict with North Korea” a real possibility; Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has directed his National Security Council to plan for the rescue of Japanese nationals in Korea in case of conflict; and China’s largest city bordering North Korea is “urgently” recruiting Korean translators in preparation for a refugee crisis.

Despite such frightening rhetoric, I saw no hint of panic during my trips to Seoul in late March and mid-April. Seoul residents were more focused on the then-upcoming presidential election rather than the possibility of war. Why were they so unconcerned about war with a nuclear-armed rogue state just 50km to the north?

South Korean President Moon Jae-in flags high risk of military clashes with North

Supporters of Moon Jae-in cheer after exit polls suggested a landslide victory for the then South Korean presidential candidate, in Seoul on May 10, a day after the election. There was little hint in the capital of panic over the possibility of an outbreak of war, despite the heated rhetoric. Photo: AFP
Supporters of Moon Jae-in cheer after exit polls suggested a landslide victory for the then South Korean presidential candidate, in Seoul on May 10, a day after the election. There was little hint in the capital of panic over the possibility of an outbreak of war, despite the heated rhetoric. Photo: AFP

The answer is that South Koreans seem to intuitively understand that neither the North nor the South wish to risk mutually assured destruction.

Most reasonable observers would agree that Washington would not easily risk North Korean retaliation on metropolitan Seoul’s 25 million citizens, and that Seoul certainly would not grant permission for a pre-emptive strike. Many of the same observers, however, would portray Kim Jong-un and the North Korean regime as irrational or illogical, and fear that Pyongyang would trigger mutually assured destruction on the Korean peninsula to achieve its purposes.
Select Voice
Select Speed
1x
AI-generated voice