appConfigEntityId

bodyType

customContents

entityId

entityUuid

isVideo

articlePageQuery

article

articleSchemaContent

content

hooksArticlePageAdvertisementConfigArticle

hooksArticlePageFloatingButtonConfigArticle

appConfig

filter

json

liveArticle

Zhang Shidong

Gold will probably test US$5,000 an ounce by the end of 2026, as demand from central banks diversifying their foreign reserves remains strong, countering fears of US monetary tightening after strong labour data and a hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve, according to investment banks.
RBC Capital Markets is the latest to join the bullish camp, forecasting US$4,929 by year-end and US$5,296 in 2027. That aligned with Goldman Sachs and State Street Investment Management, which predicted that gold would climb to US$4,900 and US$5,000, respectively. The projections implied at least a 10 per cent gain from current levels.
Gold is back in favour among investors even as expectations mount for higher US interest rates, which traditionally weigh on the non-yielding metal.
The inverse correlation between the yellow metal and borrowing costs is breaking down amid concerns over fiscal discipline and relentless bond sales by the Trump administration, fuelling the so-called debasement trade.
This is a fiscal spending backdrop that potentially favours gold allocations as a strategic monetary hedge
Aakash Doshi, State Street
Central banks are ramping up gold purchases to hedge against US Treasuries, whose long-end yields rose to multi-year highs last month.
“In this case, it does not appear to be above-trend GDP [gross domestic product] growth or corporate margins driving higher long-term interest rates,” said Aakash Doshi, a strategist at State Street.
“This is a fiscal spending backdrop that potentially favours gold allocations as a strategic monetary hedge.”
Gold slipped 0.7 per cent to US$4,444 on Monday, with a rally from last month slowing after an August US jobs report exceeded expectations and Fed chairman Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish tone at the annual policy symposium in Jackson Hole.
The odds of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase this month stood at 58.4 per cent, according to global commodity marketplace CME Group.
The metal surged nearly 10 per cent in August, its biggest monthly gain since January, buoyed by central-bank buying and the flushing out of speculative positions.
Central banks could buy 750 to 900 tonnes of gold this year, the World Gold Council estimated. That compares with an average annual purchase range of between 400 and 500 tonnes.
Sovereign buying surged 62 per cent from a year earlier to 289 tonnes in the second quarter, the highest for a three-month period in four years.
The enthusiasm contrasts with a recent rout in US Treasuries, with the 30-year yield rising to a level not seen in nearly two decades on unease over US government debt amounting to a record US$40 trillion.
Gold could find support at around US$4,000 amid near-term rate headwinds, a level that would spur acceleration of central-bank buying and institutional inflows, according to Goldman.
“They are diversifying reserves, reducing exposure to assets that can be politically frozen, and buying insurance against the increasingly uncomfortable mix of fiscal risk, geopolitical fracture and policy uncertainty,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.
“For now, gold is caught between a near-term rates headwind and a structural bid that has not gone away. The first can be violent. The second is much harder to dislodge.”


As Chinese consumption of gold jewellery slumps 34%, sellers look to markets abroad: WGC

China’s crude imports are rising again. What will that mean for oil prices?

How Hong Kong’s new 5-year plan courts global capital with an eye on market dominance

Exchange Fund weighs bigger gold holdings to support Hong Kong’s trading hub plan

Commodities

Can gold hit US$5,000? Wall Street turns bullish despite US job growth fuelling rate fears

Gold is back in favour among investors even as expectations mount for higher US interest rates, which traditionally weigh on the metal. Photo: Reuters

Which overseas property markets will be the winners and losers if Fed raises US rates?

Real estate agents’ signs at a sold home and homes for sale in London last month. Photo: EPA

Homes for sale in Hong Kong advertised in a real estate agency’s window last year. Photo: Antony Dickson

US Treasury bond buy-back reinforces gold debasement trade as Jackson Hole meeting looms

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent outside the White House in Washington on August 20. Photo: EPA

A statue of Alexander Hamilton stands in front of the Treasury Department in Washington. Photo: Getty Images

Can Hong Kong outshine Singapore as central banks rethink gold custody amid global risks?

Where central banks store gold appears increasingly a growing priority for reserve managers, according to a Goldman Sachs report. Photo: Getty Images

China rolls out massive US$54b package for insurers, banks in financial powerhouse push

A general view of the Ministry of Finance in Beijing, China. Photo: Getty Images

Fed policy outweighs geopolitical risks, China purchases as gold forecasts retreat: survey

The outlook for gold marks a significant retreat from the bullishness seen at the start of the year. Photo: dpa

Business

China Business

Markets

Banking & Finance

Record buying spree by central banks offsets Fed tightening fears, pushing gold towards US$5,000 by year-end, investment banks forecast


Record buying spree by central banks offsets Fed tightening fears, pushing gold towards US$5,000 by year-end, investment banks forecast.


Can gold hit US$5,000? Wall Street turns bullish despite US job growth fuelling rate fears

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Record buying spree by central banks offsets Fed tightening fears, pushing gold towards US$5,000 by year-end, investment banks forecast

Record buying spree by central banks offsets Fed tightening fears, pushing gold towards US$5,000 by year-end, investment banks forecast