UBS’ China property optimist retreats from bullish calls, foresees deeper slump
Home prices in mainland China are expected to fall for at least another two years as more people prefer renting over buying, John Lam says
Lam said he expected home prices to fall for at least another two years before a recovery in mainland China’s beleaguered residential property market could take hold. One reason was that potential buyers were increasingly opting to rent properties while prices were declining, he noted in a report earlier this month.
“People who bought homes in the past decade may all be loss making,” he said, adding that this had “fundamentally changed housing price expectations”.
The Swiss bank has turned more bearish on China’s housing market just months after Lam predicted that home prices could “turn stable” as soon as early 2026, led by a revival in top-tier cities. The long-time analyst is known for downgrading China Evergrande Group at the start of 2021, 11 months before the nation’s most indebted developer defaulted on its debt. Lam also took a bold stance last year by turning bullish on the property sector.