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Zhu Wenqian

Mainland China’s new and existing home prices posted a smaller month-on-month decline in January, but the annual drop widened, indicating a housing market that has yet to find a clear floor, analysts said.
Commercial residential prices across 70 major cities fell at a slower pace from December on a monthly basis, while new-home prices in the four tier-one cities dropped 2.1 per cent year on year, 0.4 percentage points steeper than the previous month, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Friday.
Shanghai was the only tier-one city to record annual growth in new-home prices, rising 4.2 per cent. Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen posted declines of 2.4 per cent, 5.3 per cent and 4.9 per cent, respectively, with the pace of falls accelerating in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Second-hand home prices in tier-one cities dropped 7.6 per cent year on year, widening by 0.6 percentage points from December, with all four cities registering declines, NBS data showed.
“In our view, China’s nationwide home prices have not yet shown signs of stabilisation. On a year-on-year basis, the rate of price decline for primary and secondary homes quickened again in January across tier-one to tier-three cities,” said Edward Chan, a director at S&P Global Ratings.
“The continued price drop for primary and secondary homes on a month-on-month basis in January 2026 across tier-one to tier-three cities also does not suggest price stabilisation, in our opinion,” Chan added.
A Goldman Sachs report released on Friday said the sequential downturn in house prices remained broad-based across all city tiers.
The bank said it expected further easing measures this year, including additional mortgage rate cuts, more relaxed home purchase restrictions in tier-one cities, and stronger policy support for urban village redevelopment and local government purchases of unsold housing inventory.

On a monthly basis, new-home prices in the four tier-one cities slipped 0.3 per cent in January, unchanged from December. Shanghai was flat, while Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen recorded modest declines. Second-hand home prices in tier-one cities edged down 0.5 per cent month on month, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points, the NBS said.
China’s property sector, which accounted for roughly a quarter of the economy at its peak, has been in a prolonged downturn since late 2020, with falling home prices weighing on household wealth.
Local governments have rolled out a series of supportive measures in recent months, though no major nationwide stimulus has yet been introduced.
The market’s central challenge had shifted from weak transaction volumes to persistent price declines, according to a BOC International report released on Thursday. For investments in the real estate sector, a policy inflection point may come around the end of the first quarter this year, followed by a possible inflection point in housing demand recovery in the fourth quarter.
“Assuming effective policy implementation, the decline in commercial housing sales is expected to narrow slightly in 2026,” said Xia Yifeng, chief real estate analyst at BOC International.
“However, as long as homebuyers expect further price falls and income and employment prospects remain uncertain, we expect the annual decline in average home prices to remain broadly in line with 2025,” she said.
She added that the quarterly decline was expected to narrow progressively over the course of the year, with tier-one city prices likely to stabilise and return to year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter.


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China property

China housing market shows no clear turning point as price declines continue

Chill wind: analysts say China’s nationwide home prices have not yet shown signs of stabilisation. Photo: EPA

China’s property sector, which accounted for roughly a quarter of the economy at its peak, has been in a prolonged downturn since late 2020. Photo: EPA

Business

Property

Monthly declines narrowed in January, yet worsening year-on-year prices suggest housing pressures persist


Monthly declines narrowed in January, yet worsening year-on-year prices suggest housing pressures persist.


China housing market shows no clear turning point as price declines continue

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Monthly declines narrowed in January, yet worsening year-on-year prices suggest housing pressures persist

Monthly declines narrowed in January, yet worsening year-on-year prices suggest housing pressures persist