Nicholas Spiro
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
Nicholas Spiro is a partner at Lauressa Advisory, a specialist London-based real estate and macroeconomic advisory firm. He is an expert on advanced and emerging economies and a regular commentator on financial and macro-political developments.
Companies with aggressive AI spending plans and negative free cash flow are being punished. Beneficiaries of AI spending might be next.
Surging tech exports are fending off a Japan-style slump – yet that very success risks dulling the pressure to rebalance the economy.
Indonesia’s financial woes are home-grown and structural – arising from failures to embrace reform – while India’s are externally driven.
The AI ‘everything trade’ looks increasingly shaky as hyperscalers search for external financing, risking debt spillover to other markets.
Advertisement
China has exploited the EU’s ineffective integration while Japanese bond investors fear the financial consequences of reform failures.
Investors should look to sectors that benefit from policy support while remaining sceptical about US banks’ predictions.
As investors pile into alternative property sectors and seek more exposure to listed real estate, transparency becomes more important.
Against the rising resilience of Chinese markets, the sharp reappraisal of US debt and dollar risks makes the answer far from clear-cut.
Higher interest rates may dampen momentum, but solid demand, improving sentiment and effective policy execution will prove more decisive.
Bessent’s intervention could have adverse implications for Japan’s economy, the BOJ’s credibility and tech-heavy stock markets in Asia.
Pockets of resilience and growth in the city’s property sector could be the prelude to a broader recovery across the country.
Despite rising energy prices and bond yields, economic growth has been resilient and equity markets have been performing strongly.
Beijing is putting homebuyers first, but only by transferring financial risks to to developers already under severe strain.
While risks to Asia’s financial stability exist, they have nothing to do with the policy and structural weaknesses behind the 1997 crisis.
While the two cities compete on wealth management incentives to draw talent and capital, the spillover into office and residential real estate remains negligible.
From surging debt to trade wars with Canada, self-harm has been the main consequence of Trump’s reckless policy decisions.
Unlike the US backlash, Malaysia is drawing up efficiency requirements to guide a sustainable tech boom.
Bond markets are nervous about central banks’ ability to contain inflation as South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines face similar pressures.
Japan’s commercial property market is in a league of its own, but the sharp repricing in China creates compelling opportunities for investors.
The more ‘DeepSeek moments’ there are in China, the likelier markets are to doubt the AI-related revenues and financing of US hyperscalers.
An uneven rebound is favouring established operators as tight supply constraints raise the barriers to entry.
Reversing the yen’s long-term decline ultimately rests on Japan’s ability to take its real interest rates out of negative territory – without triggering market panic.
While the premium to luxury end of India’s property market is thriving, the dramatic shortage at the low-to-mid-end is coming under scrutiny.
China’s two-speed economy stems from the shift to new growth engines but the export boom it has created is doing little for jobs or consumption.
Suitable sites for conversion to student housing are dwindling while questions about scalability and liquidity are coming into sharper focus.
Investors nervous about the dominance of South Korean and Taiwanese chipmakers can’t afford to ignore them.
As Hong Kong, India and Japan show, sharp divergences within a market defy broad-brush generalisations.
While forward guidance often proved counterproductive, it is the US central bank’s job to inform markets about the outlook for monetary policy, not the other way round.
The draw of safe-haven assets in these cities sees more Chinese becoming permanent residents – a trend Beijing’s clampdown on capital outflows may even encourage.
